Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
10,038
68,472
Hays, KS...
30 %
13,799
81,814
Hays, KS...
15 %
153,008
8,462,238
New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Jackson, MS...Metairie, LA...
SPC AC 021710
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Sun May 02 2021
Valid 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF NORTHERN KANSAS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE IN FLORIDA
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with scattered damaging wind along with potential for
a few significant wind gusts are expected from northeast Colorado
into northern Kansas later this afternoon into the evening. Isolated
severe storms remain possible this afternoon into the evening over a
portion of the lower Mississippi Valley region.
...Central Plains area...
Late this morning a cold front extends from northeast NE southwest
through eastern CO then northwestward through northwest CO. Surface
low is situated over southwest CO with a dryline extending southward
through the southern High Plains. WV imagery and RAP analysis show
the next in a series of impulses moving east through the central
Rockies, and this feature will emerge over the High Plains this
afternoon. Near-surface dewpoints in the generally in the 50s F
reside in pre-frontal warm sector across northern KS and southern NE
with 40s farther west into eastern CO beneath plume of 7.5-8 C/km
mid-level lapse rates. Strong diabatic heating will destabilize the
boundary layer this afternoon contributing to MLCAPE from less than
1000 J/kg across eastern CO to 1500 J/kg across northern KS and
southern NE. The northeasterly upslope flow in post frontal region
will likely contribute to thunderstorm development initially across
northern CO where a few thunderstorms are already in progress. This
activity will intensify across northeast CO and especially northwest
KS as the outflow/front intercepts greater low-level moisture and
instability by mid afternoon. Easterly low-level winds veering to
westerly and increasing to 30 kt through the mid-levels will support
a forward propagating MCS as the downstream atmosphere destabilizes.
Inverted-V thermodynamic profiles with steep low-mid level lapse
rates should promote efficient downdraft production, and effective
bulk shear up to 35 kt may support embedded organized structures
with a corridor of scattered damaging wind likely as the MCS
advances through northern KS.
...Lower Mississippi Valley region...
Late this morning a warm front extends from the central Gulf Coast
area through southeast LA then northwest into northwest LA to a weak
surface low in northeast TX. A cold front extends southward from the
low through eastern TX. Widespread clouds and precipitation has
limited destabilization over most of this region so far. However,
trends in visible imagery show clearing across eastern TX into far
western LA. As the warm front continues north and clouds erode from
the southwest, destabilization is expected to spread northeast with
time. Ascent accompanying the primary shortwave trough now moving
through east TX is intercepting the destabilizing warm sector with
surface-based convection now developing from southwest TX into
western LA. Effective bulk shear from 35-40 kt and up to 200 m2/s2
0-2 km storm relative helicity should support some organized storm
structures including a few supercells. All severe modes are possible
including isolated damaging wind, large hail and a few tornadoes.
The best tornado threat will probably be as warm sector storms move
northeast and interact with warm front. The severe threat will
gradually spread northeast through the remainder of the SLGT risk
area during the afternoon and into the evening.
..Dial.. 05/02/2021
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