SPC AC 181633

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1133 AM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021

   Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ON THE
   CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms will likely be centered on the
   central and eastern Carolinas. A few tornadoes (a couple of which
   might be strong), damaging winds, and some hail remain possible.
   Other isolated severe storms are possible from southern Ohio into
   the central Appalachians, and across north Florida.

   ...Southeast...
   Overall severe threat will likely focus in two corridors which are
   encompassed by the cat 3/ENH risk for tornado and wind. Initial
   broken band of non-severe convection is ongoing from south-central
   GA through the eastern FL Panhandle. This activity has struggled to
   intensify despite strong low to deep-layer shear as it impinges on a
   relative minimum in buoyancy sampled by the 12Z JAX sounding and
   evident in mesoanalysis time-series. However, destabilization is
   occurring downstream from north FL to the coastal Carolinas and
   redevelopment of severe storms is anticipated at some point this
   afternoon. The eastward translation of a 50-55 kt LLJ will support
   an enlarged hodograph favorable for a few supercells. Modest
   mid-level lapse rates will remain a limiting factor, though MLCAPE
   will be large enough given to support a few tornadoes and scattered
   damaging winds, with a strong tornado or two still possible.

   The separate area of potential severe should be coincident with the
   track of a mesolow from the northeast GA/northwest SC border across
   the Piedmont towards south-central VA. Here, MLCAPE will likely
   remain weak but cloud breaks just ahead of the low near the
   mid-level dry slot may prove sufficient for an intensifying area of
   convection. Where sufficient buoyancy overlaps the more
   favorable/curved hodographs east of the mountains, a couple
   supercells capable of a strong tornado, damaging winds, and isolated
   large hail will all be possible this afternoon/evening.

   ...OH Valley...
   East and southeast of the weakening occluded cyclone, pockets of
   stronger boundary-layer heating are underway on the nose of the
   mid-level dry slot. In conjunction with cool mid-level temperatures,
   500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will be sufficient for a few strong-severe
   storms later this afternoon. This area will be on the northwest edge
   of the stronger flow/shear, where a mix of multicell clusters and a
   few low-end supercells are probable. A tornado or two, large hail,
   and damaging winds will be possible.

   ..Grams/Broyles.. 03/18/2021

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