Big Spring, TX...Plainview, TX...Altus, OK...Canyon, TX...Woodward, OK...
2 %
60,571
1,281,636
Lubbock, TX...Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Midland, TX...Lawton, OK...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
92,580
1,479,852
Amarillo, TX...Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...San Angelo, TX...
5 %
65,318
2,097,435
Oklahoma City, OK...Lubbock, TX...Norman, OK...Midland, TX...Edmond, OK...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Abilene, TX...San Angelo, TX...Dodge City, KS...Big Spring, TX...Plainview, TX...
5 %
97,722
1,588,124
Lubbock, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Midland, TX...Lawton, OK...Enid, OK...
SPC AC 131231
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX
PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe storms are expected later today into
early tonight from west Texas into western Oklahoma and southwestern
Kansas. The most significant severe weather threat, including
strong tornadoes and very large hail, is expected this
afternoon/evening across the east central and southeast Texas
Panhandle.
...Southern High Plains through early tonight...
A deep closed low over AZ will progress eastward to the southern
High Plains by the end of the period. In association with an
embedded jet streak rotating northeastward around the eastern
periphery of the low, a surface cyclone will develop
north-northeastward from the TX Panhandle this afternoon to
southwestern KS tonight. The cyclogenesis will draw the surface
warm sector northward across western OK and the TX Panhandle today
to the east of a developing dryline, which will focus severe storm
development this afternoon/evening.
Some elevated convection is expected this morning from northeast NM
northeastward into southwest KS, within the exit region of the
mid-upper jet. Midlevel lapse rates/buoyancy will be sufficient for
isolated large hail with this convection. Farther southeast and
following a lull in the overnight convection, the warm sector will
spread northward today, beneath midlevel lapse rates greater than 8
C/km. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg) is expected
south of the warm front and east of the dryline this afternoon, with
only weak convective inhibition along the dryline. Initial storm
development is expected early-mid afternoon along the dryline in the
vicinity of I-27 in TX Panhandle/South Plains. These initial storms
will move off the dryline and maintain more discrete character as
they encounter a moist, destabilizing warm sector with strong
vertical shear. Given boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 60s,
afternoon temperatures of 65-70 F, effective bulk shear near 70 kt,
and effective SRH in excess of 250 m2/s2, there will be a few hour
window for a couple of supercells to produce long-track, strong
tornadoes and very large hail across the east central/southeast TX
Panhandle.
West of the initial supercells, squall line development is expected
by evening as a Pacific cold front overtakes the dryline and the
stronger height falls/ascent overspread the TX Panhandle and west
central TX. Embedded supercell structures within the line will be
capable of producing all hazards, though the overall severe threat
will weaken with eastward extent during the early overnight hours,
as a result of diminishing buoyancy.
..Thompson/Gleason.. 03/13/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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