SPC AC 200734

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0234 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are possible Wednesday from the southern Plains into
   the lower Mississippi Valley.

   ...Discussion...
   A positive-tilt shortwave trough will move from the southern Plains
   eastward across the Gulf Coast states, with a broad area of
   west/southwest 50-60 kt midlevel winds. At the surface, a weak area
   of low pressure will move from OK during the day into AR, with a
   front surging east across northern TX and the ArkLaTex. A dryline
   will punch east across TX, except for Deep South TX where it will
   become stationary.

   East of the dryline, southerly winds will result in moisture
   recovery over much of eastern TX during the day with mid to upper
   60s F dewpoints common, then across LA and southern MS overnight.
   The rapid advection of moisture into a relatively cool air mass over
   the Southeast will result in widespread clouds, which will inhibit
   heating except near the dryline (near I-35 in TX and OK).

   The greatest threat of severe storms, including damaging hail, will
   be near this dryline where storms will have access to stronger
   heating. Despite a pronounced veer/back signal in the low-level wind
   profile, strong deep-layer shear will support sustained cells,
   perhaps a few supercells.

   Numerous storms will persist overnight as they move into the lower
   MS Valley, but the boundary layer, although moistening, will be
   relatively cool. Thus, despite large SRH, it is unclear how much of
   a tornado threat there will be. More likely, an MCS will produce
   areas of wind damage.

   ..Jewell.. 04/20/2020

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z