Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
19,883
3,716,673
Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Bloomington, MN...Plymouth, MN...Brooklyn Park, MN...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
30,389
1,905,338
Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Sioux City, IA...Council Bluffs, IA...Bellevue, NE...
SPC AC 181958
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020
Valid 182000Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of scattered damaging wind gusts are possible
this afternoon and evening over parts of southern Minnesota and
northern Iowa. More isolated thunderstorm wind gusts are possible
farther south across parts of the central and southern Plains.
...20Z update...
Prior forecast reasoning is largely unchanged. A cluster of storms
has developed across southwest Minnesota/northwest Iowa at
mid-afternoon and these storms may somewhat intensify and organize
this through late afternoon, with isolated wind damage being the
primary hazard.
Elsewhere, a few strong storms may develop this evening within a
post-frontal regime across southeast Colorado/far northeast New
Mexico, and possibly into the western Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity. A
severe storm cannot be entirely ruled out this evening, but the
overall potential should remain low given relatively modest buoyancy
and a mid-level flow weakness.
..Guyer.. 06/18/2020
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020/
...Upper Midwest including Minnesota/Iowa/eastern Nebraska...
Convection continues to gradually decay within the near/pre-cold
front environment across the region, although considerable cloud
cover remains prevalent at midday. Thunderstorms are expected to
redevelop later this afternoon/early evening near the effective
front as the air mass gradually recovers/moderately destabilizes,
particularly within a corridor from southeast Nebraska into
western/northern Iowa into southern Minnesota where 1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE is expected. Storms are expected to linearly organize
relatively quickly, with wind damage as the primary hazard.
...Kansas/southern Plains...
At least widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to
develop late this afternoon/early evening in vicinity of a
northeast/southwest-oriented front and/or a dryline that extends
across west Texas. Hot temperatures, steep lapse rates and ample
instability will allow for stronger updrafts/downdrafts within an
environment characterized by weak low-level/deep-layer shear. The
stronger storms will be capable of localized severe-caliber wind
gusts. It is plausible that a couple of south/southeastward-moving
clusters may evolve/persist this evening, perhaps most probable
across western Oklahoma and/or west/northwest Texas.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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