Atlanta, GA...Columbus, GA...Sandy Springs, GA...Macon, GA...Fargo, ND...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
15,479
178,965
Grand Forks, ND...Grafton, ND...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
55,650
7,636,655
Atlanta, GA...Columbus, GA...Sandy Springs, GA...Macon, GA...Fargo, ND...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
55,633
7,604,041
Atlanta, GA...Columbus, GA...Sandy Springs, GA...Macon, GA...Fargo, ND...
SPC AC 152000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020
Valid 152000Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS/GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of far
eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota late this afternoon and
evening. A couple of strong storms posing a risk for hail and gusty
winds are also possible across the southern Appalachians and
northern/central Georgia this afternoon.
...Discussion...
No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook.
..Smith.. 06/15/2020
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020/
...Far eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota...
The southward extent and related likelihood/coverage of deep
convection later today remains a bit uncertain, with somewhat higher
probabilities for thunderstorms and a related severe risk in closer
proximity to the international border across far eastern North
Dakota and far northern Minnesota. Modest mid-level height
rises/warming will tend to occur today in the wake of a mid-level
impulse/MCV, which has influenced lingering showers/cloud cover
through late morning.
As clouds clear, moderate destabilization is anticipated within a
relatively narrow warm sector characterized by low/mid 60s F surface
dewpoints and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Where storms do form, upwards
of 40 kt effective shear could support a few supercells capable of
large hail, and potentially a non-zero tornado risk. Pending the
extent of storm coverage, a small cluster of storms could ultimately
develop and move across and/or move into the Lake of the Woods
vicinity and far north-central Minnesota this evening, before
tending to diminish in intensity by the late afternoon/early
overnight hours.
...Southern Appalachians/Georgia...
A vort max on the western periphery of a southern
Appalachians-centered upper low will continue to spread
south-southeastward over the region today. While the boundary layer
is not overly moist and drying/mixing will tend to occur,
thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
across the region this afternoon. Aided by relatively cool mid-level
temperatures, some hail may occur, while locally damaging winds are
a possibility as well given a well-mixed boundary layer.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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