Shreveport, LA...Bossier City, LA...Pine Bluff, AR...Monroe, LA...Hot Springs, AR...
MARGINAL
135,546
7,131,540
Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Baton Rouge, LA...Des Moines, IA...Little Rock, AR...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
31,646
1,741,159
Shreveport, LA...Bossier City, LA...Pine Bluff, AR...Monroe, LA...Hot Springs, AR...
2 %
75,458
4,398,198
Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Little Rock, AR...Fort Smith, AR...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 161628
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ARK-LA-TEX REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may become capable of producing a few brief tornadoes
and strong wind gusts across the Ark-La-Tex region this afternoon. A
few strong storms are also possible over a portion of eastern NE
into IA as well as the southern High Plains.
...Northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, northern Louisiana through
southern and central Arkansas...
A strong convectively reinforced vorticity maximum over eastern TX
will move northward toward the Ark-La-Tex region this afternoon. By
20Z the attendant surface low should be situated over northeast TX.
Rich low-level moisture with dewpoints around 70 F is advecting
northward through AR, and partial cloud breaks will result in
temperatures warming to the upper 70s F. However, poor lapse rates
and multi-layer clouds will limit MLCAPE to between 500 and 1000
J/kg. A 40 kt low-level jet just east and northeast of the surface
low will develop through the Ark-La-Tex region where near-surface
winds will remain east-southeasterly, contributing to 150-250 0-1 km
storm relative helicity. Additional storms are expected to develop
in association with the northeast-ejecting vorticity maximum.
Potential will exist for isolated low-topped supercells and bowing
segments capable of a few brief tornadoes and locally strong wind
gusts this afternoon.
...Lower MO Valley...
A shortwave trough near the Black Hills will gradually move east
into western IA by early Sunday. Weak mid-level height falls in
conjunction with an MCV ahead of the trough over south-central NE
should be the focus for renewed convective development later this
afternoon across southeast NE to the IA/MO border area. Upper 50s
surface dew points across KS to northern MO will slowly advect north
with a more pronounced surge expected towards late afternoon as a
surface cyclone deepens near northeast NE/west-central IA. A modest
combination of mid-level lapse rates and deep-layer shear should
preclude a greater severe threat, but some enlargement to low-level
hodographs will foster a threat for at least a couple of severe
storms capable of a brief tornado or two and locally strong wind
gusts.
...Southern High Plains...
Weak northwesterly flow will develop at mid levels across the
southern Rockies/High Plains region today. This will allow
strong boundary-layer heating to occur across eastern CO/NM
such that convective temperatures should be breached by late
afternoon. With light upslope flow expected into the higher terrain
of southeast CO/northeast NM, a couple supercells could develop and
then spread south-southeast before weakening towards sunset.
..Dial/Squitieri.. 05/16/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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