Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Little Rock, AR...Denton, TX...Sandy Springs, GA...
SPC AC 191605
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020
Valid 191630Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
PARTS OF LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
A severe-weather outbreak is expected across much of the Deep South
through tonight, with the greatest threat from east Texas and the
Delta region eastward across parts of Alabama and Georgia. Multiple
episodes of thunderstorms will result in tornadoes (some strong),
damaging wind and large hail.
...TX/LA/MS/AL...
Several large clusters of intense thunderstorms have developed this
morning over east TX and western LA. These storms are in a region
of increasing large-scale lift ahead of the an approaching shortwave
trough. Very steep midlevel lapse rates and ample CAPE, along with
deep-layer shear sufficient for rotating storms, will promote the
potential for large hail and damaging winds in the stronger cells.
Local VAD profiles also show sufficient low-level shear for a risk
of a few tornades - especially this afternoon as low-level jet
strengthens.
A well-defined warm front extends from central LA eastward into
MS/AL. Clusters of storms will track along and south of the warm
front this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings show
parameters favorable for all modes of severe. Hodographs will
become quite large through the day, supportive of strong tornadoes
in the more discrete supercells that may form. A few of the
clusters may also develop into fast-moving bowing structures capable
of locally damaging wind gusts. It appears likely that the corridor
along and south of the warm front (within the MDT risk) may see
several rounds of strong/severe convection this afternoon into
tonight.
...AL/GA/SC...
A large shield of ongoing showers and thunderstorms is affecting
parts AL/GA/SC today. The aforementioned warm front is building
northward, and is nearing the southern fringes of the convection.
Once that occurs, surface-based parcels will be realized by the
storms and the risk of severe weather should increase. Damaging
winds and hail will be possible, but the proximity of the warm front
and strengthening low-level shear/helicity this afternoon will also
support a risk of tornadoes.
Later tonight, storms over MS/AL will track eastward and also affect
this region. Parameters will remain quite strong through the
overnight period, with a considerable risk of bowing structures
capable of damaging winds, and the threat of supercell storms
producing tornadoes (some strong).
..Hart/Karstens.. 04/19/2020
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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