Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 310524
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts
of southern/central Alabama and Georgia, as well as southern coastal
South Carolina. Strong to damaging winds, large hail, and a few
tornadoes may occur.
...Discussion...
Mid-level height field will be suppressed across the Gulf States
today ahead of a strong short-wave trough that will progress from
the lower MS Valley at the start of the period to off the Atlantic
Coast Tuesday evening. Weak surface low will reflect the influence
of this feature as it tracks across central AL into GA by 18z.
Latest data continues to suggest 60s surface dew points will
overspread the warm sector as a warm front advances north to roughly
the latitude of the progressive surface low.
Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the
period along the cold front and this activity should remain
organized through late afternoon as it migrates east ahead of the
short wave. Majority of the convection may reside along the cool
side of the boundary, but increasing boundary-layer moisture should
result in modest surface-based buoyancy, more than adequate for
robust updrafts. Forecast soundings favor supercells as strong
deep-layer flow will be present. While some tornado threat will be
noted early across portions of MS, boundary-layer heating should
prove beneficial for stronger updrafts/supercells downstream across
AL/GA. All severe hazards are possible with this activity, and the
primary corridor of storms should be heavily influenced by height
falls ahead of the short wave, essentially from extreme northern FL
to the east/west oriented warm front.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/31/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
| 
)
