The SPC is forecasting ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the the South-Central States this afternoon and tonight....
Please read
the latest public statement about this event. View What is a Watch? clip.
Categorical Graphic
Day 1 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE
78,942
5,644,237
Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Mesquite, TX...Tyler, TX...
San Antonio, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Killeen, TX...Denton, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
99,305
7,992,015
Austin, TX...Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Mesquite, TX...
45 %
79,515
5,635,228
Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Mesquite, TX...Tyler, TX...
Fort Worth, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Pasadena, TX...
SPC AC 110055
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
Valid 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS TO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms will spread across east Texas into
the lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Damaging winds are the primary
threat, though a few tornadoes are also expected. Hail will also be
common across south-central Texas.
...01z Update...
Primary changes warranted at 01z are to lower severe probs in the
wake of the squall line.
An elongated corridor of deep convection, approaching 800mi long,
extends from eastern MO - northwest AR - southeast OK -
central/southwestern TX. This band of thunderstorms has matured
along the leading edge of pronounced forcing ahead of a strong
short-wave trough. Over the last few hours convection has decidedly
taken on linear characteristics and this MCS should advance into the
lower MS Valley later tonight. 00z soundings ahead of the squall
line exhibit strong shear with only modest lapse rates. The most
buoyant profile is LCH where 70F surface dew points reside. This air
mass should advance across eastern TX into northern LA/southern AR
later tonight, which should aid environmental instability for the
maintenance of long-lived linear MCS. Damaging winds are the primary
threat with this activity. Greatest tornado threat will be with
pre-squall line supercells, though embedded squall line circulations
should be noted most of the night.
..Darrow.. 01/11/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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