SPC AC 140952

   Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0352 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
   SOUTHEAST AR...EASTERN TX...MUCH OF LA...MS AND AL...

   CORRECTED FOR STATE ID TYPO

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered severe storms are expected Monday into Monday
   night from far eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and
   much of Mississippi and Alabama. Damaging wind gusts, a few
   tornadoes and isolated hail are all possible.

   ...Lower MS Valley into the Deep South Vicinity...

   Forecast guidance continues to trend deeper with the
   eastward-ejecting mid/upper trough moving across the Plains to the
   central U.S. on Monday. As a result, a weak surface low over AR
   during the morning is forecast to track more east/northeast into
   northern MS then into TN/KY. This will keep the warm sector confined
   further south across the lower MS Valley vicinity into the Gulf
   coast states. 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread much of the
   Gulf coast states ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front.
   Vertical shear continues to be impressive and supportive of
   supercells. Furthermore, latest forecast soundings from various
   guidance show some improvement in low level hodographs and
   convergence ahead of the front. This could act to increase tornado
   potential across parts of LA/MS/AL into the evening hours. However,
   deep layer southwesterly flow will generally be parallel to the
   surface front. As a result, a messy storm mode/evolution is expected
   with a mix of line segments/clusters and perhaps a few semi-discrete
   cells. MLCAPE will remain modest, around 500-750 J/kg, limited in
   part by cloud cover/weaker insolation. However, some areas that
   experience pockets of stronger heating could destabilize further.
   Midlevel lapse rates will be moderate, around 6.5-7.0 C/km and could
   result in some hail in more discrete modes. Otherwise, strong wind
   gusts and a few tornadoes (either from semi-discrete cells or via
   mesovortices in line segments) are expected.  

   South and east extent of the Slight risk area remains somewhat in
   question given concerns over forcing, somewhat weaker shear and
   storms developing/moving into the area after peak heating.
   Therefore, expect some changes on the periphery of the Slight risk
   area in coming outlooks as details hopefully become clearer.

   ..Leitman.. 12/14/2019

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