SPC AC 010825

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0225 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2019

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE
   CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms -- including potential for locally severe storms --
   will likely exist across portions of the southeastern U.S. centered
   over the central Gulf Coast region on Sunday.

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad/relatively low-amplitude cyclonic flow will persist across the
   U.S. Sunday, south of the main upper vortex progged to remain over
   Ontario through the period.  With respect to convective potential,
   the primary upper feature of interest will remain the fast-moving
   short-wave trough that will cross the southeastern quarter of the
   U.S. before reaching the western Atlantic late in the period.

   At the surface, a weak frontal wave will shift eastward across the
   Gulf Coast states, and later the southern Appalachians and Carolinas
   before shifting offshore.  Meanwhile, a surge of polar air is
   progged to spread south/southeast across much of the central and
   eastern U.S. and northern Rockies through the period.

   ...Central Gulf Coast region and vicinity...
   A relatively moist boundary layer is progged to reside ahead/south
   of the frontal wave which will shift quickly across the region
   Sunday, sufficient to support modest CAPE.  While the low will
   remain weak, and surface winds somewhat veered/southwesterly ahead
   of the front south of the surface low, strong deep-layer flow will
   accompany the upper system -- resulting in shear supporting
   organized/rotating storms.  

   While primary risk will likely be wind, emanating from a few
   small/bowing segments moving quickly east-northeastward, a couple of
   tornadoes may also occur -- the most likely zone at this time
   appearing to exist from southern/eastern Mississippi into central
   Alabama, during the afternoon hours.  As storms spread quickly
   eastward into the evening, a decrease in intensity/severe risk is
   expected, with risk likely to linger longest over portions of the
   Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia.

   ..Goss.. 03/01/2019

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z