Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
8,352
276,739
Elizabeth City, NC...Washington, NC...
2 %
4,417
1,371,646
Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Portsmouth, VA...Suffolk, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
57,229
866,014
Bend, OR...Springfield, OR...Redmond, OR...Elizabeth City, NC...Washington, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
25,044
415,600
Bend, OR...Springfield, OR...Redmond, OR...
SPC AC 060047
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019
Valid 060100Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER AND INNER BANKS VICINITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AND PERHAPS
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for a couple of additional tornadoes continues tonight,
mainly across the Outer and Inner Banks vicinity of North Carolina.
Otherwise, strong storms may continue to impact much of Oregon into
this evening, accompanied by some risk for severe wind and hail.
...01Z Outlook Update...
...South Atlantic Coast...
Although the center of Hurricane Dorian is just now reaching the
southern North Carolina coastal vicinity, south of Wilmington,
tropical boundary layer air, characterized by temperatures in the
lower 80s F and dew points in the upper 70s, is now largely confined
to the North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity into portions of the
Inner Banks. This environment appears to offer the best support for
any appreciable continuing risk for occasional tornado development,
as outer convective bands pivot across this region, in the presence
of strong low-level shear. This could linger into the 09-12Z time
frame, before shifting east of southern Mid Atlantic coastal areas,
ahead of the gradually northeastward accelerating center of Dorian.
...Oregon...
Widespread convection and associated outflow appears to be in the
process of stabilizing the environment, but a couple of strong
storms may continue to pose at least some risk for severe wind and
hail into the 02-04Z time frame.
..Kerr.. 09/06/2019
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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