SPC AC 241943

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0243 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

   Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
   OHIO VALLEY AREA SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AREA...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   ENH RISK AREA...ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER THE
   SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS VICINITY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds will
   continue to evolve over the central/southern Appalachians and Ohio
   Valley today.  Other more isolated severe activity may yet occur
   over northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin and vicinity, and is
   expected to develop in the next couple of hours over
   west-central/southwest Texas.

   ...Discussion...
   Convection continues to evolve this afternoon as anticipated; with
   reasoning communicated in prior outlooks still appearing valid at
   this time, no outlook changes are needed.

   ..Goss.. 06/24/2019

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019/

   ...Central/Southern Appalachians...
   Morning satellite and radar imagery show a well-defined remnant MCV
   over southern KY.  This trough is embedded with a larger upper
   trough rotating across the OH/TN valleys.  The air mass ahead of the
   feature is heating rapidly and will become very unstable by
   mid-afternoon.  Strengthening midlevel winds, coupled with strong
   instability and affects of the MCV will pose a more substantial risk
   of bowing thunderstorm structures capable of damaging wind gusts.  A
   few supercells cannot be ruled out, along with a risk of isolated
   tornadoes.  Therefore have upgraded much of WV and vicinity to an
   ENH risk and 30% severe wind probabilities.

   ...AL/GA...
   A very warm/humid air mass remains in place today over this region
   with strong CAPE values expected.  Most 12z CAM solutions suggest
   pockets of afternoon thunderstorm development, although models
   differ on placement and timing.  Those storms that form will pose a
   risk of strong/damaging wind gusts.

   ...WI/IL...
   Considerable cloud cover is slowly eroding today from the west over
   southern WI/northern IL.  This may result in sufficient afternoon
   heating for scattered thunderstorm development. Relatively cold
   midlevel temperatures and dewpoints in the 60s will promote a few
   robust updrafts capable of hail.  Vertical shear is not particularly
   strong - and given the clouds and thermodynamic uncertainties,
   overall coverage of severe storms may remain limited.

   ...TX...
   Full sunshine and rapid destabilization is occurring over parts of
   west TX today.  This is expected to result in rapid thunderstorm
   development this afternoon.  Large CAPE values will be in place, but
   vertical shear will be weak.  It appears that multicell storm
   structures will be common, with gusty winds and hail possible in the
   most intense cores.

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