SPC AC 231946

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0246 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

   Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN TEXAS...AND ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
   REGION INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   GEORGIA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong/severe thunderstorms will continue over parts of southern
   Oklahoma, north Texas, and western Arkansas, and in a
   less-widespread nature over adjacent/surrounding areas.  Damaging
   hail, severe gusts and a tornado or two are possible.

   A few severe storms will also occur from the lower and middle Ohio
   Valley southward into the Southeast, and a severe storm or two will
   remain possible over portions of the central high Plains area.

   ...Discussion...
   Convective evolution remains largely as anticipated this afternoon,
   thus requiring few substantive changes to the outlook at this time. 
   Along with some eastward expansion of the risk areas over the mid
   Ohio Valley area where a rather fast-moving band of storms has
   developed, the most substantial change is the addition of a SLGT
   risk area across Georgia, within the broader area of MRGL risk. 
   Here, weakly organized but fairly widespread storms -- the stronger
   of which will pose risk for brief/locally damaging winds -- warrants
   an increase in wind probability this afternoon.  For additional
   short-term information regarding the Georgia risk, please refer to
   recently issued MCD #1219.

   ..Goss.. 06/23/2019

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019/

   ...Southern Plains...
   Water vapor imagery shows an upper trough axis over the southern
   Rockies, with broad cyclonic flow aloft over the southern high
   Plains.  A large and well-organized MCS is sagging
   east-southeastward across parts of OK/AR, with a slow weakening
   trend noted over southern OK.  This activity may re-intensify this
   afternoon as it moves into an increasingly warm/unstable air mass 
   over AR.  Damaging winds along the leading edge of the convection
   will be the main threat.  These storms could maintain intensity as
   far southeast as west TN and northern MS this evening.

   Farther southwest, strong heating will lead to a very unstable air
   mass over northwest TX later today.  Splitting supercell
   thunderstorm development is expected to occur near the surface
   triple-point west of ABI, with storms expanding eastward across
   north TX and southern OK.  Initial storms will pose a risk of very
   large hail and a tornado or two.  Storms should grow upscale by
   early evening, with bowing structures and a damaging wind threat
   moving across much of the ENH risk area.

   ...IL/IN/KY...
   A remnant MCV is noted over the STL area, with an associated line of
   thunderstorms extending across southern IL.  These storms are moving
   into a moist and moderately unstable air mass, where sufficient
   vertical shear is present for convective organization.  Multicell
   and bowing structures are expected to affect this region this
   afternoon, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.

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