Amarillo, TX...Roswell, NM...Clovis, NM...Hobbs, NM...Garden City, KS...
MARGINAL
391,281
17,788,928
Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...Albuquerque, NM...Tulsa, OK...Colorado Springs, CO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
60,160
223,322
Sterling, CO...Lamar, CO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
39,905
227,466
Garden City, KS...Liberal, KS...Guymon, OK...Lamar, CO...
5 %
509,135
18,543,983
Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...Albuquerque, NM...Tulsa, OK...Colorado Springs, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
172,519
1,185,864
Amarillo, TX...Roswell, NM...Clovis, NM...Hobbs, NM...Garden City, KS...
5 %
391,745
17,828,372
Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...Albuquerque, NM...Tulsa, OK...Colorado Springs, CO...
SPC AC 031957
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2019
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
THROUGH SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGIONS...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will persist this
afternoon over the High Plains, and should spread toward lower
elevations this evening before weakening. Large hail and isolated
severe wind gusts will be the main threats.
...Discussion...
Previous outlook appears to remain mostly on track. Primary change
with this update has been to trim modestly along eastern edge of the
slight risk area over the southern Plains and expand the slight risk
farther west and closer to the higher terrain over the central High
Plains. Storms developing over the mountains of NM will spread
northeast, posing a risk for large hail and gusty winds, and may
grow upscale into a couple of clusters before weakening as they move
farther into the High Plains later this evening. Elsewhere, other
storms developing over the higher terrain will pose an isolated
large hail and damaging wind threat as they move through the central
High Plains. Some of this activity may also evolve into a couple of
small MCSs toward evening.
..Dial.. 06/03/2019
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2019/
...Central and Southern High Plains...
A persistent upper ridge axis remains over the central and southern
High Plains, with little evidence in water vapor imagery or model
guidance for large-scale forcing mechanisms today. Nevertheless,
multiple clusters of rather slow-moving thunderstorms are expected
to form along this axis this afternoon, as strong daytime heating
and sufficient low-level moisture are present. Forecast soundings
show rather marginal vertical shear profiles for organized severe
storms, but given pockets of large CAPE and steep midlevel lapse
rates, a few severe or even supercell storms are expected. Storms
should initially pose a risk of hail as they move off the higher
terrain, with an increasing risk of gusty/damaging winds farther
east during the evening.
...OK/AR...
Thunderstorms have initiated early today across parts of eastern OK.
These storms will build slowly eastward into western AR this
afternoon. Shear profiles are weak, but storm interactions and
upscale growth could result in a few strong storms capable of gusty
winds and hail.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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