The SPC is forecasting ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central Plains from midday into the overnight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.  View What is a Watch? clip.

   SPC AC 281956

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0256 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

   Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
   KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHERN IOWA...

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
   OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms, capable of producing large hail, damaging wind and
   tornadoes are likely this afternoon into tonight from the central
   and a portion of the southern Plains eastward to the Midwest. Severe
   storms with a threat for large hail, damaging wind and a couple of
   tornadoes will also persist across the Upper Ohio Valley and
   Northeast States through the evening.

   ...Discussion...

   Overall previous forecast appears on track. Primary change has been
   to expand moderate risk category farther southwest into northeast
   KS. Storms are expected to develop over south central KS along and
   ahead of Pacific front this afternoon and spread northeast through
   the strongly unstable warm sector. Vertical wind profiles with 40-50
   kt effective bulk shear will support supercells capable of very
   large hail. Low-level mesocyclone and tornado threat will also
   increase, especially toward evening, as the low-level jet
   strengthens and augments 0-1 km hodograph size. Elsewhere, the
   special 17Z RAOB from Norman OK indicates the inversion layer has
   cooled (possibly due to ascent) compared to 12Z.  It still appears
   probable that discrete supercells will develop across west central
   OK and possibly as far south as northwest and north central TX this
   afternoon into the evening.

   ..Dial.. 05/28/2019

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue May 28 2019/

   ...Plains/Mid MS Valley region through tonight...
   A closed midlevel low over CO this morning will move slowly
   east-northeastward toward NE overnight.  At the surface, a cyclone
   in north central KS is expected to move east-northeastward toward
   extreme northwest MO, as a trailing cold front moves slowly
   southeastward across western/central KS into northwest OK and the TX
   Panhandle.  South of the cyclone this afternoon, a dryline will
   sharpen across western OK and northwest TX.  East of the low, a
   sharp east-west front (reinforced by convective outflow this
   morning) will persist across northeast KS and northern MO.  These
   surface boundaries will provide the primary foci for severe
   thunderstorm development later today into tonight.

   A loose cluster of elevated thunderstorms across central KS could
   persist into the afternoon as the low levels destabilize and the
   convection begins to interact with the baroclinic zone in northeast
   KS.  Convection will likely become rooted at the surface this
   afternoon, within an environment favorable for supercells. 
   Tornadoes will be possible with any semi-discrete supercells, and
   with more complex storm-boundary interactions.  It appears likely
   that convection will grow upscale by late afternoon into an MCS that
   will traverse northern MO/southern IA into tonight, with an
   accompanying threat for large hail and swaths of damaging winds. 

   Farther south along the dryline, widely scattered to scattered
   thunderstorm development is expected from 21-00z as convective
   inhibition weakens.  Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE greater than 3000 J/kg)
   and long hodographs will support supercells capable of producing
   very large hail and damaging winds.  Low-level shear/hodograph
   curvature will not be particularly favorable tornadic supercells
   during the afternoon.  However, a couple of tornadoes will still be
   possible, especially with any storms/clusters than can persist
   beyond sunset when some increase in low-level shear is expected.  

   ...Mid-Atlantic to the OH Valley this afternoon/evening...
   A weak surface cyclone in extreme southeast Lower MI will translate
   eastward near the NY/PA border this afternoon in association with
   subtle speed maxima in the westerlies aloft, as a surface warm front
   moves east-northeastward into eastern PA/NJ.  The warm sector will
   become moderately unstable by early afternoon (MLCAPE near 2000
   J/kg) with minimal convective inhibition, and scattered thunderstorm
   development is expected near the path of the surface low and along
   the trailing east-west oriented front near 18z.  Moderate buoyancy
   and effective bulk shear of 50 kt or greater with long, relatively
   straight hodographs will support splitting supercells in the warm
   sector.  These storms will be capable of producing large hail and
   damaging winds into this evening.  Additionally, a few tornadoes
   will be possible, given sufficient low-level shear/hodograph
   curvature (0-1 km SRH in excess of 150 m2/s2) from PA into NJ,
   especially near the surface warm front.

   Scattered thunderstorm development is also expected this afternoon
   from northern IN into northern OH along the east-west front, as the
   low levels destabilize and in advance of a remnant MCV emanating
   from the ongoing IA convection.  Effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt
   and straight hodographs will support a mix of supercells and
   multicell clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging
   gusts.

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