The SPC is forecasting ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the across the central Plains to Midwest this afternoon and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.  View What is a Watch? clip.

   SPC AC 281321

   Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0821 AM CDT Tue May 28 2019

   Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
   NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI TO
   WESTERN ILLINOIS...

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF EASTERN OHIO...PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN DELAWARE...

   CORRECTED FOR SLIGHT RISK IN NORTHEAST

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms, capable of producing large hail, damaging wind and
   tornadoes are likely this afternoon into tonight from the central
   Plains eastward to the Midwest. Severe storms with large hail,
   damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes are also expected across the
   Upper Ohio Valley and Northeast States this afternoon and evening.

   ...Central Plains to Iowa/northern Missouri and Illinois...
   An initial severe risk, mainly in the form of localized damaging
   winds, exists across southern Iowa this morning. Warm-air advection
   may continue to support an eastward-moving cluster of storms toward
   the Mississippi River. For additional short-term details, see
   Mesoscale Discussion 847.

   These storms, and other scattered now-decayed storms overnight, have
   continued to reinforce a west/east-oriented baroclinic zone along
   the Nebraska/Kansas and Iowa/Missouri border vicinities, with
   outflow still slowly sagging southward into/across northern Kansas
   as of 13Z. This baroclinic zone, as it shifts/returns somewhat
   poleward during the day, and perhaps separate outflow remnants
   farther to the south, will serve as foci for renewed surface-based
   storm development this afternoon. 

   A moist/moderately unstable air mass along/south of the effective
   front in the presence of ample effective shear will support initial
   supercells, with the greatest concentration of storms near the front
   and possible remnant outflow. This appears most likely across far
   southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri and
   southwest Iowa this afternoon. 

   Large hail/damaging winds aside, the greatest tornado risk is
   expected near the effective boundary during the late afternoon
   through early/mid-evening. This could include a couple of strong
   tornadoes. As some additional strengthening of low/mid-level winds
   occurs, upscale quasi-linear growth can be expected this evening,
   with the likely evolution of a
   forward-propagating/eastward-accelerating MCS. Accordingly damaging
   winds are expected to be an increasing concern across southern
   Iowa/northern Missouri into Illinois tonight.

   ...Central High Plains...
   Farther to the west, at least isolated semi-low-topped severe storms
   capable of hail/locally damaging winds are expected this afternoon
   and evening near and north of the boundary extending across
   northwest/north-central Kansas into northeast Colorado.

   ...Oklahoma/southern Kansas to Ozarks...
   More isolated surface-based development is expected with southward
   extent across the region late this afternoon and evening. Initially
   warm mid-level temperatures (13C at 700mb per 12Z Norman sounding)
   and inhibition should abate in tandem with weak height falls and the
   gradual approach of the cyclonically curved upper jet. Where storms
   do develop, large hail is expected to be the primary threat, but a
   tornado or two could occur as well, mainly as the low-level jet
   begins to nocturnally strengthen this evening toward/after sunset.
   Locally damaging winds could also occur pending possible gradual
   upscale growth this evening as storms spread east-northeastward.
   Have adjusted the Enhanced Risk southwestward across Oklahoma in
   tandem with short-term guidance/convection-allowing model consensus
   based on the plausibility of at least isolated supercellular
   development.

   ...Northeast including Ohio/Pennsylvania to New Jersey...
   Widely scattered thunderstorms and associated broken cloud cover are
   observed across the region this morning. A surface low will move
   slowly east across the Lake Erie vicinity, with gradual
   heating/destabilization likely to occur, which will contribute to
   increasing and intensifying storm development by early afternoon.  

   With fast/weakly veering west to west-northwesterly flow with height
   progged atop the region, clusters of organized/fast-moving storms
   are expected to evolve. This could include splitting supercells,
   particularly before more linearly organized clusters/bow evolve. At
   this time, damaging winds would appear to be the primary severe
   risk, along with severe hail. Tornado threat should be somewhat
   limited by only modest veering of the flow with height, but ample
   low-level speed shear suggests at least some possibility for a
   tornado or two during the afternoon. With regeneration of successive
   bands of storms possible, within the west-northwesterly flow regime,
   severe risk will likely linger through the evening and possibly into
   the overnight hours.

   ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/28/2019

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