The SPC is forecasting ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.  View What is a Watch? clip.

   SPC AC 261627

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1127 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

   Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are likely today into tonight across much of
   the central Plains and southern High Plains, with all aspects of
   severe weather expected. Additional severe thunderstorms are
   possible across the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, accompanied by
   a risk for severe wind and hail.

   ...High Plains this afternoon into tonight...
   Downstream from a deep closed low digging south-southeastward along
   the CA coast, a lead shortwave trough over southern AZ will eject
   northeastward to the central High Plains by late evening.  In
   response, lee cyclogenesis will occur across CO, as a diffuse warm
   front (reinforced by overnight convection) moves northward across
   western KS.  Richer low-level moisture will be drawn northward from
   the TX Panhandle into western KS/eastern CO, beneath an elevated
   mixed layer plume.  Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE at or above 3000 J/kg)
   is expected this afternoon south of the warm front and east of a
   developing dryline across the High Plains.

   Surface heating/mixing, as well as ascent preceding the ejecting
   midlevel trough, will support thunderstorm development along the
   dryline by mid afternoon from extreme northeast NM into eastern CO
   along the dryline.  An increase in low-level shear later this
   afternoon/evening, within the unstable/moist environment, will be
   supportive of supercells capable of producing tornadoes (a few of
   which could be strong) and very large hail.  The storm evolution by
   late afternoon/evening could become more complex with storm
   interactions and upscale growth possible, especially near the warm
   front along the KS/CO border, though eventual consolidation of
   storms may also occur farther south along the dryline near and after
   sunset.  The convection is expected to persist overnight across
   KS/NE, with the threat for damaging gusts and a few tornadoes with
   embedded circulations, and storms could reach western IA near the
   end of the period with at least a marginal wind threat.  

   ...OH Valley to Mid-Atlantic through early tonight...
   A somewhat diffuse MCV and remnant convection are moving over
   western PA as of midday will continue eastward/east-southeastward
   over southern PA/northern VA/MD this afternoon.  Destabilization in
   advance of this subtle wave will support at least isolated storm
   development this afternoon, in an environment with straight
   hodographs (effective bulk shear 35-40 kt) and moderate buoyancy
   (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg).  Damaging gusts and large hail will be the
   main threats.

   Farther west, a more pronounced shortwave trough near Saint Louis as
   of mid morning will progress eastward over the OH Valley through the
   afternoon and evening.  Moderate buoyancy will be present this
   afternoon in advance of the shortwave trough, along the synoptic
   front from southern IL across southern IN into OH, as well as a
   weakening outflow boundary from northern WV into northern KY. 
   Additional storm development is expected along these boundaries and
   in advance of the midlevel trough, with damaging gusts/large hail
   expected with storm clusters/embedded supercells.  The storm
   clusters could persist into late evening/early tonight while moving
   east of the Appalachians.

   ..Thompson/Nauslar.. 05/26/2019

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