Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
6,300
100,819
Altus, OK...Elk City, OK...Weatherford, OK...Clinton, OK...
2 %
86,859
5,405,229
Oklahoma City, OK...Wichita, KS...Lubbock, TX...Norman, OK...Lawton, OK...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 260041
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...
...SUMMARY...
A risk for severe thunderstorms continues this evening, mainly
across southern portions of the central Plains into portions of the
middle Mississippi Valley, and across portions of western New York
and Pennsylvania into the Allegheny Mountains.
...01Z Outlook Update...
...Southern/central Plains into middle Mississippi Valley...
The leading edge of conglomerate convective outflow associated with
upscale growing convection may maintain vigorous thunderstorm
development along its northeastward surging leading edge, across
parts of western/northern Oklahoma and central/eastern Kansas,
through at least the 02-04Z time frame. This will be supported by
modest inflow of air characterized by CAPE on the order of 2000-3000
J/kg, in the presence of strongly sheared, 30-40 kt southwesterly
mean ambient flow.
Similar instability may continue to support additional strong/severe
thunderstorm development through late evening in advance of this
activity, along the primary surface frontal zone extending across
northern Kansas, east-northeastward across southern Iowa, into
southern portions of the Great Lakes region.
Stronger southerly 850 mb flow, on the order of 30-40+ kt, will
remain focused across the Texas South Plains into the central High
Plains, around the western periphery of subtropical ridging
centered near the eastern Gulf Coast states. This will provide
potential for further thunderstorm development above the residual
convectively generated cold pool across the Texas Panhandle, but
this may occur well to the north of the southern outflow boundary,
as increasingly warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air advects
north-northeastward across the southern into central High Plains.
...Northeast...
To the southeast of the lower Great Lakes region, an increasingly
organized squall line has evolved across portions of western New
York and Pennsylvania. However, as it continues eastward across the
Southern Tier of New York, and across the Allegheny Front, it will
encounter stable boundary layer air which appears likely to lead to
fairly quick diminishing trends in intensity and severe weather
potential by 02-03Z.
..Kerr.. 05/26/2019
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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