Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Memphis, TN...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
45 %
30,203
1,883,192
Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Longview, TX...Bossier City, LA...North Little Rock, AR...
SPC AC 181959
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019
Valid 182000Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKANSAS VICINITY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO EASTERN
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will continue from Texas to Iowa, with the greatest
continuing across parts of the southern Plains into Arkansas and
Louisiana. Risk for widespread damaging winds and a few tornadoes
will continue into this evening.
...Discussion...
Aside from minor line adjustments to account for latest convective
trends, only minimal changes to the outlook areas is being
implemented at this time, as reasoning laid out in prior outlooks
remains valid.
An expansive area of convection continues from western Missouri
south across western Arkansas, and then southwestward into the Hill
Country of Texas, where damaging winds and embedded tornado risk
continues. Meanwhile, some redevelopment of storms remains possible
over portions of southern Kansas and adjacent northwestern Oklahoma
later this afternoon, where risk for large hail persists.
..Goss.. 05/18/2019
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019/
...Central TX into AR...
A large linear MCS has developed this morning, extending from
southeast KS southward into northern and central TX. The line of
storms is moving into a strongly sheared and moderately unstable air
mass, where surface dewpoints are currently in the mid 60s to lower
70s, and effective helicity values are 200-300 m2/s2. Locally
damaging winds are expected to accompany the line as it moves
eastward, along with transient QLCS tornado circulations. The
potential for discrete supercell development ahead of the line will
increase this afternoon as daytime heating helps to destabilize the
region ahead of the squall line. This severe threat will persist
through the day and into the evening as the storms track into much
of AR and northwest LA.
...Northwest OK and south-central KS...
The expansive cloud shield associated with the OK/TX MCS will move
eastward, allowing a few hours of heating to occur over northwest OK
and south-central KS. Ample low-level moisture should return to
this region, with a pocket of strong instability forecast to
develop. A consensus of 12z CAM guidance shows a few discrete
supercells forming over this area late this afternoon. While the
risk area is rather small, strong deep-layer shear profiles and
steep midlevel lapse rates suggest a significant risk of large hail
with this activity. Very large hail is possible. Therefore have
added an ENH risk and increased the hail probabilities for this
region.
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