New York, NY...Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Pittsburgh, PA...Newark, NJ...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
207,936
61,586,180
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...
SPC AC 150355
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...MOST OF PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN NEW
JERSEY...EASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE...NORTHEAST VIRGINIA...
CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE
...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes remain possible tonight
across the Mid-Atlantic States.
...Discussion...
Expansive upper trough continues to move across the eastern CONUS,
interacting with a modestly moist and unstable air mass ahead of it
to provoke scattered thunderstorm development from Lake Erie
southward into GA. Numerous watches, both Severe Thunderstorm and
Tornado, are in effect to cover this threat. Most significant
changes to the outlook have been made on the western edge, where the
outlook was trimmed based on the position the surface trough.
Southern portion of the organized line extending from far western NY
through WV is beginning to show signs of better organization and
stronger updrafts. The northern portion near the NY/PA border
remains fairly strong while storms along the line just south (across
western PA) have struggled to maintain intensity. Expectation is for
this entire line to gradually strengthen as the upper trough
continues eastward and the associated height falls spread across the
region.
Additionally, an increase in storms is anticipated from central
South Carolina through central North Carolina and into south-central
Virginia as the low-level jet increases. This initially cellular
activity could pose a threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado
or two.
..Mosier.. 04/15/2019
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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