Philadelphia, PA...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
34,345
6,670,604
Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Durham, NC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
78,536
17,177,091
Philadelphia, PA...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 151630
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019
Valid 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across
parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and Carolinas between 3 to 9 PM
EDT.
...Mid-Atlantic States/Carolinas...
Steady height falls are expected across much of the region today in
conjunction with strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds
associated with an amplifying/cyclonically curved belt of westerlies
from the Ohio Valley toward the northern Appalachians. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms persist at midday across the western
Carolinas into southwest Virginia coincident with an eastward-moving
cold front, which will reach the coastal plain by early evening.
Prevalent multi-layer cloud cover precedes the front at midday, but
additional low-level moistening (low 60s F surface dewpoints) will
occur through the afternoon along with general expectations of
thinning cloud cover across piedmont to coastal portions of the
Carolinas into southeast Virginia and the Delmarva vicinity.
Despite a veered wind profile, a belt of strengthening low/mid-level
flow, particularly from North Carolina northward, will support
modestly enlarged hodographs and a few weak to moderately rotating
updrafts appear probable. Isolated damaging winds should be the
primary hazard, although a tornado cannot be ruled out mainly across
east-central North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Parts of the
region will continue to be reevaluated this afternoon for a somewhat
more focused corridor of severe potential related to a possible
Slight Risk upgrade.
..Guyer/Smith.. 03/15/2019
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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