Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
29,826
6,648,187
Columbus, OH...Montgomery, AL...Warren, MI...Sterling Heights, MI...Livonia, MI...
Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Huntsville, AL...Chattanooga, TN...Sandy Springs, GA...
SPC AC 150100
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AL INTO
NORTHWEST GA...NORTHERN KY INTO EASTERN OH...EXTREME EASTERN LOWER
MI...
...SUMMARY...
A severe thunderstorm threat will continue into tonight across
portions of the Southeast, with a threat of damaging wind, isolated
large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Further north, a damaging
wind threat will persist through mid-evening over portions of far
eastern Michigan, eastern Ohio, and northern Kentucky.
...Central/Eastern AL...Northwest GA...
Three primary clusters of convection are ongoing at 0045Z across
central/eastern AL into northwest GA. Gradual veering of low-level
flow and the onset of nocturnal cooling will tend to reduce the
severe threat across this area with time, but buoyancy and shear
will be more than sufficient to maintain a threat of organized
convection through much of the evening. Low-level shear will
continue to support some tornado threat with the more discrete cells
into mid-evening at least, while isolated instances of damaging wind
and hail will remain possible. There is some potential for
convection to redevelop along the primary cold front back into
southeast MS/southwest AL later tonight, which would pose a marginal
severe risk as it moves northeast.
...Northern KY...Central/Eastern OH...
A gradual weakening trend is expected to continue with convection
moving across northern KY into central/eastern OH, as already
limited buoyancy becomes even weaker as diurnal cooling commences.
However, with very strong low-to-midlevel flow and favorable shear
profiles in place, a localized threat for damaging wind and perhaps
a brief tornado will continue with any stronger convection into at
least mid-evening. See MCD 218 for more information.
...Eastern Lower MI...
Very strong shear will continue to support a damaging wind threat
across extreme eastern lower MI until around 02Z, before convection
exits the region. See MCD 219 for more information.
..Dean.. 03/15/2019
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
| 
)
