SPC AC 141730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A severe threat with large hail, isolated wind damage, and possibly
   a tornado may occur Sunday across parts of the southern Plains.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid/upper-level low with embedded 70+ kt mid-level speed maximum
   will move northeastward Sunday from southern AZ/NM and adjacent
   northern Mexico to the southern High Plains. A southerly to
   southeasterly low-level jet will likewise shift eastward across West
   and central TX through the day, as low-level moisture returns
   northward across the southern Plains. At the surface, an area of
   weak low pressure associated with the mid/upper-level low over
   northern Mexico should develop northeastward into eastern NM and the
   TX Panhandle by Sunday evening, and eventually consolidate over OK
   by the end of the period. A cold front attendant to this low will
   advance eastward across West and central TX through the day. A
   shallow, cold airmass over much of the central/southern Plains will
   likely undergo only slow modification across the southern Plains.

   ...Southern Plains...
   The northward extent of sufficient low-level moisture return to
   support surface-based convection remains unclear per 12Z NAM/GFS
   guidance. Better low-level moisture characterized by mainly mid 50s
   to lower 60s surface dewpoints will remain confined along/south of a
   remnant front lifting slowly northward as a warm front across the
   southern Plains through Sunday evening, with some disagreement
   amongst model guidance on the placement of this boundary across
   north TX into southern OK. Regardless, there will likely be
   surface-based thunderstorm development across the warm sector in
   West TX by early Sunday afternoon along and south of the warm front.

   With modest daytime heating and a sufficiently moist low-level
   airmass, MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg seems probable to develop in the
   warm sector Sunday afternoon ahead of the eastward-advancing cold
   front. Veering and strengthening winds with height supporting
   effective bulk shear values of 40-50 kt per various forecast
   soundings suggest any thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the
   front will be able to acquire organization, and pose a threat for
   isolated large hail/damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado.

   Thunderstorms should eventually consolidate into a line along the
   cold front, with mainly a damaging wind threat continuing into
   Sunday evening across central TX. This wind threat should eventually
   wane across central TX by late Sunday evening as convective
   inhibition increases and thunderstorms become mainly elevated. Along
   and north of the warm front that should be located across north
   TX/southern OK, marginal elevated instability may exist in
   combination with sufficient mid-level speed shear to support an
   isolated hail threat, perhaps as far north as southwestern OK.

   ..Gleason.. 01/14/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z