SPC AC 241730

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SD SEWD INTO MO AND SWWD
   INTO WRN OK...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY LATE...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
   U.S....

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL ARE LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
   INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
   MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
   EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
   A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL. HAIL AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS OVERNIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN STATES WITH UPPER LOWS
   OVER ND AND AZ. THE NRN SYSTEM WILL BE COMPRISED OF AN EARLY
   DISTURBANCE MOVING QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY...ACCOMPANIED BY A WARM FRONT AND AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
   PRECIPITATION. BY AFTERNOON...A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS
   FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NEB AND SD AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE
   ERN DAKOTAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLING ALOFT...INCREASING
   DEEP-LAYER PROFILES AND LIFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS.

   TO THE S...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
   MID MO VALLEY SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F AND
   SLY SFC WINDS. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM S CNTRL KS ACROSS WRN OK
   AND INTO W CNTRL TX BY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SEVERE
   STORMS THERE AS WELL.

   HEIGHT FALLS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
   OVER SWRN TX AS THE BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
   NM...AND MAY SUPPORT NOCTURNAL SEVERE STORMS IN TX.

   ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
   A BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL
   RAPIDLY PROGRESS NWD ACROSS MUCH OF MN...IA...AND WRN WI DURING THE
   DAY. THE VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS
   WITH HAIL AS INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED VIA ADVECTION. THE VEERING
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT ALSO SUGGEST A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT
   WITH ANY CELLULAR CONVECTION.

   BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY...HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER THE DAKOTAS...NEB AND
   SWRN MN. SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE
   TROUGH FROM CNTRL SD INTO NEB...SPREADING NEWD WITH A THREAT OF HAIL
   AND WIND. THE COLD PROFILES ALOFT SUGGEST ISOLATED VERY LARGE
   HAIL...ALTHOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON STORM MODE.

   ...ERN KS INTO MO...
   EARLY STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING FROM ERN KS INTO NRN MO
   SUPPORTED BY WARM ADVECTION WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F SURGING NWD.
   STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP UPSTREAM OF THE EARLY
   ACTIVITY...WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY POSSIBLY PRESENT IN THE AREA
   WHICH COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LATER DEVELOPMENT. IF THIS
   OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY FAVORABLE HERE FOR
   SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT IS
   CONDITIONAL GIVEN LACK OF ANY UPPER SUPPORT AFTER THE EARLY WAVE
   MOVES THROUGH.

   ...WRN OK...
   EXTREME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST NEAR THE DRYLINE WITH GENERALLY WEAK
   SFC CONVERGENCE BY AFTERNOON. HOT TEMPERATURES W OF THE DRYLINE WILL
   CLEARLY MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN A NARROW CORRIDOR WHERE IT IS UNCAPPED. WHILE
   SHEAR PROFILES WILL INITIALLY BE UNFAVORABLE EARLY IN THE DAY WITH
   VEERED 850 MB WINDS...WINDS WILL BACK AND STRENGTHEN LATE IN THE DAY
   AND WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
   TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR IN WRN
   OK...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO NWRN TX.

   ...SWRN TX LATE...
   STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER SWLY TX DURING THE EVENING
   AS 70S F DEWPOINTS SURGE NWWD WITH SELY 850 MB WINDS AND UPPER
   HEIGHT FALLS LATE AS THE MAIN UPPER SPEED MAX SPREADS ACROSS NM.
   THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...EITHER CELLS
   OR AN MCS WITH A HAIL AND WIND THREAT. SOME CAPPING MAY EXIST...BUT
   STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT THEMSELVES AS THEY PROPAGATE SEWD
   WITH LIFT ATOP LEADING OUTFLOWS.

   ..JEWELL.. 05/24/2016

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