Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 140100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2016
VALID 140100Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND ARK-LA-TEX REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
WASHINGTON AND OREGON LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
...COASTAL AREAS OF WESTERN WA/ORE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO A STRONG
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES INLAND LATER TONIGHT. STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 200-400 J/KG. CONVECTIVE PROCESSES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE
SURFACE...THOUGH THEY MAY NOT PROVIDE MUCH ENHANCEMENT TO ALREADY
STRONG BACKGROUND WINDS. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE SUCH THAT A BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OZARKS AND ARKLATEX REGION...
SOME INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT NORTH OF A WEAK FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN LA TO SOUTH-CENTRAL TX. THIS WILL OCCUR AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE PROCESSES WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH GENERALLY WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT.
..PETERS.. 10/14/2016
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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