SPC AC 081642

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1142 AM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016

   VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS LOWER
   MI...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM SE
   KY/NE TN TO WRN NC...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN A BROAD AREA FROM THE
   APPALACHIANS TO THE SRN PLAINS AND ERN CO...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
   AREA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR S CENTRAL MT...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
   SOUTHWEST TO THE OZARK PLATEAU AND WEST TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   HIGH PLAINS.

   ...GREAT LAKES AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
   A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE FORCING
   FOR ASCENT WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS LOWER
   MI...IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS
   NOW NEAR THE W SHORE OF LAKE MI.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS ASCENT AND DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING
   REMOVE ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  MODERATE BUOYANCY IS
   EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS LOWER MI WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
   TO MID 80S.  DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK
   FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  

   STORM COVERAGE IS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH SWD EXTENT TOWARD NRN
   INDIANA...SINCE THIS AREA WILL RESIDE IMMEDIATELY S OF THE HEIGHT
   FALLS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE WI/LOWER MI SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 
   STILL...IF STORMS FORM...MODERATE BUOYANCY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   AOA 40 KT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.  A
   MARGINAL WIND/HAIL RISK WILL ALSO EXTEND WWD INTO NE WI...WHERE
   LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL MAINTAIN
   BUOYANCY BENEATH THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH.

   ...OH/TN VALLEY REGION TO NC THIS AFTERNOON...
   AN MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
   ARE MOVING GENERALLY EWD OVER THE OH RIVER NEAR THE INDIANA/KY/OH
   BORDER AS OF LATE MORNING.  THIS CONVECTION WILL POSE A RISK FOR
   OCCASIONAL DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL.  ADDITIONAL STORM
   DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO THE SW THIS AFTERNOON INTO SRN KY
   AND TN ALONG THE DIFFUSE OUTFLOW FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION.  THESE
   STORMS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EWD/ESEWD AND POTENTIALLY REACH
   WRN NC THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   RISK WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
   SOME ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW WITH THE MCV.

   ...OK AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
   THE EFFECTIVE FRONT IS DENOTED BY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
   CENTRAL OK...TRAILING WWD FROM THE WEAKENING NE OK STORMS...AND
   REINFORCED INTO NW OK/TX PANHANDLE BY THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. 
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE S EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUDS AND
   STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE-STRONG BUOYANCY AND
   THE POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

   ...ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
   55-60 F RANGE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE BUOYANCY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR IMMEDIATELY E OF THE FRONT
   RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..THOMPSON/LEITMAN.. 07/08/2016

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