SPC AC 211950

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0150 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

   VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA,
   AND FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM SERN TX AND MUCH
   OF LA EWD INTO SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
   AREA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
   EXTENDING INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW
   TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ASIDE FROM MINOR LINE TWEAKS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONVECTIVE
   EVOLUTION/ADVANCE...NO CHANGES TO THE OUTLOOK APPEAR NECESSARY AS
   PRIOR FORECAST REASONING REMAINS VALID.  STORMS NOW CROSSING THE
   SABINE RIVER VALLEY /INVOF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT/ WILL CONTINUE EWD
   ACROSS THE NWRN GULF AND SRN LA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND
   THEN EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION THIS
   EVENING/OVERNIGHT.  MEANWHILE...ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND -- BOTH WITHIN THE
   WARM SECTOR AN IN PARTICULAR INVOF THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD
   ACROSS CENTRAL LA/SRN MS.

   ..GOSS.. 01/21/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016/

   ...E TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...
   A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE EWD AND DEEPEN FROM E TX EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON TO CENTRAL MS EARLY TONIGHT AND NW AL BY FRIDAY MORNING. 
   THE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   PROGRESSING EWD FROM CENTRAL TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. 
   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLOGENESIS
   WILL TRANSPORT A MODIFYING GULF AIR MASS NWD INTO SE TX AND THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY...S OF A WARM FRONT NEAR I-20.  12Z SOUNDINGS
   REVEALED RELATIVELY COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /-15 TO -20 C AT 500
   MB/ OVER THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
   BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S TO SUPPORT MLCAPE NEAR
   1500 J/KG ACROSS S CENTRAL LA THIS AFTERNOON WHERE CLOUD BREAKS WILL
   ALLOW THE GREATEST SURFACE HEATING...AND LESSER BUOYANCY FARTHER N
   AND E THROUGH TONIGHT.

   ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA NEAR
   AND N OF I-20...WHILE NEAR-SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
   ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN E TX AND WITHIN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR IN SE
   TX AND JUST OFF THE LA COAST.  EXPECT THIS SCENARIO TO PERSIST
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS SLOWLY INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY...GIVEN LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION AND LITTLE CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION.  THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
   NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH BUOYANCY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON INTO SE TX AND SRN LA.  A
   FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED WARM SECTOR
   SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY THOSE ABLE TO MATURE
   PRIOR TO INTERACTING WITH THE ZONE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR
   THE WARM FRONT.  

   CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT IN A BAND NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF
   THE COLD FRONT FROM LA/MS INTO SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE BY EARLY
   FRIDAY MORNING.  DAMAGING GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL
   REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE NE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE
   THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE LINGERING COOL AIR WEDGE INTO ERN
   AL/GA/N FL.

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