SPC AC 051730

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT WED AUG 05 2015

   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF ERN SD INTO MN
   AND NWRN IA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS
   SWD INTO THE OZARKS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF MS/AL INTO THE
   CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS AND
   HAIL MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER
   MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. OTHER STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND FROM PARTS OF
   MISSISSIPPI TO THE CAROLINAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CONUS ON THE
   PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS.  THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
   ASSOCIATED PRIMARILY WITH A DISTURBANCE OVER THE N-CNTRL STATES
   DURING THE DAY INTO THE EVENING AND ALSO WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
   TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS VICINITY.  

   ...ERN DAKOTAS AND ADJACENT MN/IA...
   A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
   ON WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO CNTRL DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY
   THURSDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS EWD FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE
   CNTRL-ERN DAKOTAS.  A RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE MID MO
   VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE NEWD IN TANDEM WITH RICHER LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE /60S DEWPOINTS/.  BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...STRONG
   DESTABILIZATION AMIDST A BELT OF 40 KT H5 WLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
   INCREASING SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.  THE INCREASED DEEP-LAYER FORCING
   FOR ASCENT AND A WEAKENING OF THE CAP WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN
   ISOLD TO SCTD STORMS DEVELOPING.  A WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL INITIALLY
   BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT A STRENGTHENING IN SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY
   COINCIDE WITH AN INCREASED RISK FOR STORM ROTATION...ESPECIALLY AS
   STORMS MOVE INTO GREATER MOISTURE NEAR THE IA/MN/SD BORDER TOWARDS
   EVENING.  IT SEEMS PROBABLE STORMS WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO A CLUSTER
   AND POSE A STRONG/SEVERE WIND THREAT LATER IN THE EVENING FARTHER E
   INTO IA/MN.

   ...DEEP SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS...
   A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
   CAROLINAS DURING THE PERIOD AND AID IN FOCUSING ASCENT AND SCATTERED
   SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...CLOUD BREAKS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY.  MAINLY WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM
   ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY BUT MERGING MULTICELLS AND LOOSE COLD POOL
   ORGANIZATION MAY AID IN FOCUSING A LOCALIZED GREATER CONCENTRATION
   OF WET MICROBURSTS BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHES BY THE EVENING.

   ...LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS...
   DURING THE DAY...THE ADVECTION OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES/STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION IN
   WAKE OF THE TN VALLEY DISTURBANCE.  HOWEVER...THE INFLUENCE OF A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM
   POTENTIAL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
   INCREASES COINCIDENT WITH A VEERING/STRENGTHENING OF A S-CNTRL U.S.
   LLJ.  WHILE STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE...AMPLE
   ELEVATED CAPE AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR LEND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
   LARGE HAIL.

   ..SMITH.. 08/05/2015

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