SPC AC 300056

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0756 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

   VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN MN/NERN IA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN ROCKIES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TN VALLEY TO SRN GREAT
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS AZ...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
   EVENING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND
   FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY...
   SCATTERED TSTMS DOWNSTREAM OF A MINOR SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER WRN LK
   SUPERIOR SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND
   WIND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY AND 30-40 EFFECTIVE SHEAR /MOST FAVORABLY SAMPLED BY
   MODIFIED 00Z MPX RAOB/. AS NOCTURNAL SURFACE COOLING ENSUES AND
   MLCIN INCREASES...TSTM INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.

   ...NRN ROCKIES...
   RIDGE-TOPPING LEAD TSTM CLUSTER PROGRESSING FROM THE SWRN MT MTNS
   TOWARDS CNTRL MT SHOULD POSE MAINLY A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS
   WITHIN A VERY DEEPLY-MIXED ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 40-60 DEG F
   SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. THE POOR QUALITY OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
   MOISTURE ACROSS S-CNTRL/ERN MT /SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S
   TO MIDDLE 40S/ AND DEARTH OF BUOYANCY IN 00Z GGW RAOB SUGGEST THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH JUST AFTER SUNSET. REGENERATIVE TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT TO CNTRL ID MAY CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING
   WITHIN A PLUME OF PW VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCH PER RAOBS/GPS DATA.
   THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL IN ADDITION TO SEVERE
   WIND GIVEN EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. 

   ...TN VALLEY/SRN GREAT PLAINS...
   NUMEROUS ONGOING TSTM CLUSTERS MAY HAVE A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. ACTIVITY
   WILL MAINLY BE THERMODYNAMIC-SUPPORTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY WITHIN A WEAK TO MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
   WHILE SOME STORMS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THE DEGREE OF
   SHEAR AND SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST TSTM INTENSITY WILL
   PROBABLY WANE. 

   ...AZ...
   25-35 KT MID-LEVEL ELYS SAMPLED IN 00Z TUS/FGZ RAOBS HAVE GENERALLY
   FOSTERED CELLULAR TO SMALL CLUSTER CONVECTIVE MODES WITH SCATTERED
   CONVECTION ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
   SUPPORTIVE OF RISKS FOR BOTH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL. STORM-SCALE
   AMALGAMATION COULD YET LEAD TO A POTENTIAL DEEPENING COLD POOL OVER
   PARTS OF THE LOWER DESERTS BUT PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING APPEARS
   TOO LOW TO WARRANT A GREATER CATEGORICAL RISK.

   ..GRAMS.. 06/30/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z