The SPC is forecasting ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern Plains this afternoon and tonight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.  View What is a Watch? clip.

   SPC AC 161955

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0255 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

   VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN THROUGH NORTH
   CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
   AREA...ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
   THE PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS AS FAR EAST AS PORTIONS OF THE
   MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH CENTRAL
   PORTIONS...WHERE SOME STORMS WILL BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
   LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.  A FEW OF THE TORNADOES MAY BE LONG-LIVED
   AND STRONG.

   ...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...
   ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC LINES HAVE BEEN
   MADE IN AN ATTEMPT TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   AND DESTABILIZATION.  PERHAPS THE MOST NOTABLE ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
   MADE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT
   HAS BEEN IMPACTED BY CONSIDERABLE EARLY PERIOD CONVECTION.  HIGHEST
   SEVERE STORM PROBABILITIES SEEM LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED ALONG A
   CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW /ROUGHLY/ EXTENDING
   SOUTH OF WICHITA KS THROUGH THE ENID AND CLINTON-SHERMAN OKLAHOMA
   AREAS.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
   IS RECEIVING CONSIDERABLE INSOLATION...BUT MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN
   DISRUPTED BY CONVECTION TO SOUTH.

   A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSITY ALREADY
   APPEARS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION IN
   RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
   NOW IN THE PROCESS OF PIVOTING NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. 
   THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH
   CENTRAL PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND
   TORNADOES AS ACTIVITY SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD/EASTWARD.  THE
   AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH
   CENTRAL KANSAS WILL PROVIDE ONE POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR STRONG TORNADO
   DEVELOPMENT...BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO OR TWO IS STILL NOT OUT
   OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE DRY LINE...AS WELL AS SOUTH OF THE
   CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY...IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR...ACROSS
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

   PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AND WATCHES FOR
   MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR MORE IMMINENT SEVERE
   WEATHER THREATS.

   ..KERR.. 05/16/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/

   ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...

   LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
   JET AND ITS ACCOMPANYING VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER NM. THIS BELT OF
   ASCENT WILL SPREAD EWD TROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN TX...WRN KS AND
   WRN OK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER JET STREAK SWINGS
   THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
   AND AHEAD OF PACIFIC FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
   SRN PLAINS WARM SECTOR. PRIMARY COMPLICATING FACTOR IS ONGOING
   CONVECTION FROM NWRN OK THROUGH SRN KS. EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY
   REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD WAVE
   EJECTING NEWD. TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
   NEWD...SO RECOVERY THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL KS REMAINS POSSIBLE. IF
   THIS ACTIVITY DOES NOT DISSIPATE...SEVERE THREAT COULD BE BIMODAL IN
   THIS REGION WITH ONE CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED THREAT ALONG AND SOUTH OF
   THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFTOVER FROM THE MORNING STORMS ACROSS SRN KS
   THROUGH WRN AND NRN OK AND ANOTHER FARTHER NW ACROSS WCNTRL AND WRN
   KS. SOME OF THE ONGOING STORMS OVER NWRN OK MAY ALSO UNDERGO SOME
   INTENSIFICATION THIS MORNING AS THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES. WIND
   PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
   UPPER JET AND STRENGTHENING LLJ...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF
   40 KT ALONG WITH SIZEABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
   THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
   VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.

   ...NRN PLAINS INTO MN...
    
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
   THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TOWARD THE NRN
   PLAINS...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT STRONG TO
   SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
   TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN DAKOTAS ALONG/NORTH OF
   THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
   BE MAXIMIZED. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS...HOWEVER...SEVERAL TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
   ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SRH.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z