Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 291939
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0239 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
   
   VALID 292000Z - 301200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...
   UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE DEGREE OF INLAND DESTABILIZATION PRIOR
   TO 12Z/TUE...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER PROSPECTS FOR THAT TO OCCUR IN THE
   D2 PERIOD. IT APPEARS PLAUSIBLE THAT COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
   AMIDST LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO THE S/SE MAY YIELD MEAGER BUOYANCY
   WITH POTENTIALLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE. THIS SEEMS MOST
   PROBABLE MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE MARGINAL
   TSTM WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO PROBABILITIES REMAIN.
   
   ..GRAMS/ROGERS.. 10/29/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE WRN N ATLANTIC SUGGESTS THAT
   HURRICANE SANDY IS MAKING A TURN FROM THE NNW TO THE NW. BANDS OF
   STRATOCUMULUS COILING AROUND THE SRN SEMICIRCLE OF SANDY/S OUTER
   CIRCULATION INDICATE THE BAROCLINIC FORCING BEING IMPARTED TO THIS
   SYSTEM...THOUGH THE MAINTENANCE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR ITS
   INCREASINGLY SECLUDED WARM CORE CONTINUES TO FOSTER TROPICAL
   CHARACTERISTICS.
   
   AS A FUJIWHARA INTERACTION TAKES PLACE BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL
   CIRCULATION ACCOMPANYING SANDY AND A VORT MAX OVER THE
   CAROLINAS...SANDY WILL TRACK MORE WWD THROUGH TONIGHT TO THE SOUTH
   OF AN ANTICYCLONIC BLOCK OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE
   EVOLVING INTO A LARGE AND POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CENTER
   OF THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
   THE SRN NJ COAST THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT AND REACH THE PA-MD BORDER
   BY EARLY TUESDAY. PLEASE REFERENCE PRODUCTS/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE
   NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON SANDY. ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS...AND AN ASSOCIATED MARGINAL SVR WIND/TORNADO
   THREAT...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND LATE
   TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
   
   ELSEWHERE...A FEW NON-SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
   DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT AMIDST A PLUME
   OF PACIFIC MOISTURE.
   
   ...SRN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...
   SANDY WILL WEAKEN AFTER MOVING ASHORE WHILE TRACKING GENERALLY WWD
   TO WNWWD. THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
   ASSOCIATED WITH AN INFLUX OF A WARMER/MOISTER BOUNDARY LAYER
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENTLY-OFFSHORE THETA-E RIDGE ACCOMPANYING
   SANDY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S BENEATH RELATIVELY COOL
   MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE CYCLONE/S WARM CORE WILL FOSTER
   MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION LATE TONIGHT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGESTING MLCAPE GENERALLY FROM 250 TO 500 J/KG. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS
   ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL FEATURE STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER WIND
   SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPANSIVE STRONG-WIND RADII ENCIRCLING THE
   CYCLONE. THIS SET-UP MAY YIELD A SVR CONVECTIVE WIND GUST OR
   TWO...OR PERHAPS A TORNADO. WITH NWD DISPLACEMENT ACROSS NEW
   ENGLAND...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER
   WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO EXTEND TO THE SFC...THUS
   LIMITING THE SVR THREAT.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z