Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 260600
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
   KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
   MISSISSIPPI...THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST
   GEORGIA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
   REGION SWWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST TO
   MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY EWD PROGRESS THIS PERIOD...WITH A POTENT SPEED
   MAX FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND SHIFT ACROSS THE
   MID SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WITH TIME.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE
   VICINITY OF AR EARLY NNEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A
   TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN/MID AND LOWER
   MS VALLEYS.  BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE
   APPALACHIANS -- WITH A ZONE BETWEEN THE MS RIVER AND THE APPALACHIAN
   CREST LIKELY TO SEE A WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE
   WEATHER EVENT THIS PERIOD.  
   
   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
   ***POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT --
   INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OUTBREAK -- REMAINS EVIDENT
   THIS FORECAST...CENTERED ON THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY AREA.***
   
   SOME QUESTIONS EXIST ATTM WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS
   PERIOD...CENTERED AROUND THE ONGOING STORMS PROGGED TO BE SHIFTING
   ACROSS ERN AR AND INTO WRN TN/NRN MS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. 
   WHILE THE COVERAGE AND PROGRESSION OF THIS CONVECTION COULD HAVE
   EFFECTS ON TIMING/LOCATION OF LATER DAY STORMS AS WELL AS THE
   QUALITY OF AIRMASS IN SOME AREAS...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT EARLY STORMS
   SHOULD CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS WRN KY/WRN TN/NRN MS THROUGH THE
   MORNING...POSSIBLY WEAKENING SOME WITH TIME.
   
   HOWEVER...AS HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES AHEAD OF
   THE ADVANCING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER FEATURE AND AWAY FROM ANY
   CONVECTIVELY-COOLED AREAS...STORM REINTENSIFICATION AND NEW STORM
   DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  
   
   STRONG SLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO 80 TO 100
   KT FROM THE SW AT MID LEVELS WILL PROVIDE SHEAR HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
   VERY INTENSE/LONG-LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  THIS -- COMBINED WITH
   FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF
   SIGNIFICANT LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AND -- DEPENDING UPON STORM MODE --
   THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD/VERY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
    ATTM...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS
   TN/KY/NRN MS AND NRN AND CENTRAL AL...WHILE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
   WIND DAMAGE -- ALONG WITH TORNADO THREAT -- WILL EXTEND NNEWD ACROSS
   THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT.
   
   OVERNIGHT...SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH STORMS MAY
   BECOME MORE LINEAR AHEAD OF THE ACCELERATING FRONT AS IT MOVES TO --
   AND POSSIBLY ACROSS -- THE APPALACHIANS.  EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS TO PERSIST WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE...GIVEN THE
   OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE LARGE-SCALE SYSTEM.
   
   ..GOSS.. 04/26/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z