SPC AC 021958
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 PM CST FRI APR 02 2004
   
   VALID 022000Z - 031200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW
   P07 25 SW FST 30 W INK 35 W HOB 30 NNE HOB 75 ESE LBB 35 WSW BWD 65
   NW AUS 40 ENE CRP.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW CZZ 30 N RAL
   20 N NID 15 WNW TPH 45 SE BAM 50 W OGD 40 S RKS 40 ESE FCL 40 SSW
   LAA 25 SE CSM 40 SSW PRX 20 SE BPT.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NM INTO
   SWRN AND SOUTH CENTRAL TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SWRN STATES THIS FORECAST
   PERIOD.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH
   EXTENDED FROM SERN AZ/SWRN NM TO NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX  AT
   19Z WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENEWD PROVIDING SUFFICIENT UPPER FORCING
   FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS AZ/NM INTO TX.
   
   IN THE EAST...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ERN STATES FROM THE
   CAROLINAS NWD TO NEW ENGLAND PER VIS IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT
   SURFACE HEATING/SBCAPE THIS AFTERNOON. 18Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE SHALLOW CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL NOT BE DEEP
   ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
   
   ...SERN NM INTO SWRN/SOUTH CENTRAL TX...
   SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWWD ACROSS
   SRN/CENTRAL INTO WRN TX TODAY...WITH A SELY 30 KT LLJ PROGGED TO
   DEVELOP OVER SWRN TX NEAR MAF THIS EVENING.  LOWER 50 SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS SHOULD EXTEND INTO SERN NM BY 00Z WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
   60S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN TX.  MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH MOVING
   ENEWD ATOP THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE
   HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
    RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE FROM SWRN/CENTRAL TX TO DEEP SOUTH TX AND SUPPORT ORGANIZED
   SEVERE STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS FROM NWRN
   TX NEAR 40 NE BGS SWD TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION AND ADJACENT NRN
   MEXICO AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR SWRN TX IS ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. 
   LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
   THREAT INTO THE EVENING AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THIS
   AFTERNOON...AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.
   
   ...SERN AZ/SWRN NM...
   COLD POOL /-20 TO -22C AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH CUT-OFF UPPER LOW
   WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ATOP
   SURFACE HEATING PRIMARILY OVER SWRN NM PER VIS IMAGERY.  ALTHOUGH
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
   INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  STRONGEST STORMS WILL...HOWEVER...BE
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR A STRONG WIND GUST.
   
   ..PETERS.. 04/02/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z