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Oct-29-2003 1200 UTC Day 3 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
1200 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
      
Probabilistic Graphic (more info)
1200 Day 3 Prob Graphic
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   SPC AC 290859
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0259 AM CST WED OCT 29 2003
   
   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
   HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE ERN AND S CNTRL U.S. ON
   FRIDAY AS EXISTING POSITIVE TILT TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN IN
   THE WEST.  ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE
   FROM THE MID ATLANTIC CST TO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO.  PERSISTENT
   E/SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF AND SRN PLNS WILL NEVERTHELESS ALLOW FOR A
   GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER PARTS OF TX/OK AND THE
   LWR MS VLY.  ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE...A FRONT WILL REMAIN
   ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY FROM THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION NEWD INTO LWR
   MI.  
   
   ABSENCE OF WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE FEATURES TO FOCUS MESOSCALE
   UPLIFT...COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
   LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...ALL SUGGEST VERY MINIMAL THREAT
   FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN WARM AIR S OF STALLED FRONT.  ONE OR
   MORE AREAS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY
   PASSING LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
   FARTHER N.  SUFFICIENT CAPE...HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY NOT BE PRESENT
   TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 10/29/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z
        
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