STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
    
   VALID 301200-011200
    
   A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IF FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   
   MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY DRASTIC CHANGES
   MONDAY...AS COMPARED TO THE PRIOR FEW DAYS.  PROGRESSIVE TROUGH NOW
   OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL HAVE EJECTED ACROSS ERN CANADA AND LEFT A
   BROADER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. 
   ANOTHER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE PAC NW...WITH MID/UPPER
   LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...MID ATLANTIC...
   SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH BROADER TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO
   THE MID ATLANTIC REGION NEAR PEAK HEATING MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE
   SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY. 
   THOUGH DEEP WLY FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION...DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT /I.E. SFC-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40
   KT/ FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
   ORGANIZED LINES AND/OR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
   DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE EWD TOWARDS THE COAST
   THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
   
   ...OH RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
   SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOW/STALL ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITHIN
   THE WARM SECTOR.  DESPITE THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...CONVERGENCE
   ALONG THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN WEAK AS WILL THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. 
   THUS...WILL OPT TO FORECAST ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LENGTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ATTM.
   
   ...ERN MT...
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS MT DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF
   APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  ETA AND GFS FORECAST
   A WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD INTO ERN MT MONDAY
   AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION. 
   HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS QUESTIONABLE FOR MORE THAN
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ATTM AND WILL THEREFORE FORECAST ONLY
   LOW PROBABILITIES FOR NOW.
   
   ...WRN GULF COAST REGION... 
   ETA AND GFS ARE VERY DIFFERENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF ELY/TROPICAL
   WAVE EXPECTED TO EJECT NNWWD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY. 
   HOWEVER...HPC/TPC ARE FORECASTING LOW CENTER TO MOVE INTO THE WRN
   GULF COAST LATE MONDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH 00Z ETA WHICH ALSO
   BRINGS A 40 KT SLY LLJ ALONG THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
   EVENING.  THUS...LOW PROBABILITIES OF WIND DAMAGE/TORNADOES IS
   WARRANTED ACROSS ERN TX AND MUCH OF LA. 
   
   ..EVANS.. 06/28/03
    
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z