STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
    
   VALID 201200-211200
    
   THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS FOR THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS PA/NY/NEW ENGLAND
   WHILE AN UPSTREAM RIDGE PERSISTS FROM HUDSON BAY SWD OVER THE MS
   VALLEY.  FARTHER W...A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
   GRADUALLY E/SEWD OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  AS THIS WRN
   U.S. TROUGH AMPLIFIES...A WEAKER SRN STREAM TROUGH SHOULD EJECT
   ENEWD FROM THE DESERT SW TOWARD THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE IN
   THE PERIOD.  MOST OF THE ERN CONUS WILL RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE AS A
   COLD FRONT MOVES S/SEWD TO NEAR THE GULF AND SE ATLANTIC COASTS IN
   THE WAKE OF THE DEEP NE U.S. LOW.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
   NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MS/OH VALLEY
   SURFACE RIDGE...AND IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...PLAINS AREA...
   THOUGH THE RICHEST MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
   THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
   WILL LIKELY ADVECT NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.  THE 60 DEW POINTS
   AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF 85-95 F BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
   WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN
   HIGH PLAINS... THOUGH THE PLAINS MAY BE CAPPED BY A RELATIVELY WARM
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.  CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW-
   MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
   PRIMARILY ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHERE
   WARM TEMPERATURES/MIXING WEAKEN THE CAP FROM BELOW.    THE EXPECTED
   DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT
   LEAST A FEW STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH
   STORM ORGANIZATION MAY BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY THE STRONGER MID
   LEVEL FLOW REMAINING W OF THE WARM SECTOR.
   
   FARTHER S...THE CENTRAL PLAINS AREA MAY REMAINED CAPPED THROUGH THE
   PERIOD.  HOWEVER...IF SURFACE-BASED STORMS DO DEVELOP...FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.  OTHERWISE... A
   CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP E/NEWD FROM N CENTRAL TO NE NM IN
   ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE
   STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS AND HAIL.  
    
   ..THOMPSON.. 06/18/03
    
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z