STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
    
   VALID 281200-291200
    
   A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FROM ERN IA/NRN
   IL INTO WI/WRN LOWER MI.
   
   
   ETA AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE
   U.S. WEDNESDAY.  UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME SHARPER NORTH OF 4-
   CORNERS ANTICYCLONE WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS PERSISTS ALONG THE
   EAST COAST SWD FROM CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST.  PRIMARY
   CONVECTIVE FEATURE THIS PERIOD IS LIKELY TO BE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO BACKSIDE OF EAST COAST
   TROUGH.  SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKEWISE
   PROGRESS SEWD INTO CENTRAL WI/NWRN IL AND SWD ACROSS KS BY THE LATE
   AFTERNOON.  LEADING COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALSO SAG
   SWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL...WHILE STRONGER COLD FRONT
   PROGRESSES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.
   
   ...WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS...
   APPEARS GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ALONG
   APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
   REGION WHERE STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEPER CONVERGENCE
   WILL LIKELY OCCUR...SIMILAR TO QPF FORECAST BY ETA.  LEADING COLD
   FRONT NOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL GREATLY LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN
   AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM...WITH ONLY A NARROW AXIS OF SURFACE DEW
   POINTS IN THE 50S ANTICIPATED.  THIS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...
   HOWEVER SBCAPES SHOULD SUFFICE FOR CONVECTION BY THE MID/LATE
   AFTERNOON INTO NWRN IL/WI.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-35
   KT IS ANTICIPATED...SUGGESTING STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO SMALL
   LINES/CLUSTERS WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY
   SHIFT ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING.  GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
   DEVELOPING QPF AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE
   FRONT INTO KS...SUGGESTING LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS IS WARRANTED INTO THIS REGION AS WELL.
   
   ...SOUTH FL...
   ETA AND GFS PRODUCE GENEROUS AMOUNTS OF QPF AND MODERATE
   INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTH FL DURING THE DAY...AHEAD OF APPROACHING
   COLD FRONT AND NEAR SUBTLE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO
   MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  THOUGH DEEP WLY FLOW WILL BE IN
   PLACE...LIMITING CONVERGENCE...30+ KT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
   SUGGEST SOME ORGANIZED NATURE TO ENSUING CONVECTION WITH AN
   ATTENDANT THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS.
   
   ...NRN ROCKIES...
   APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE WELL DEFINED MOVING
   INTO ID/WRN MT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
   AUGMENTED BY DEEPER ASCENT AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD OVERCOME
   LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE WIDELY
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING ACROSS WRN MT WHICH
   COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE.
   
   ...SRN ROCKIES...
   DEEP ELY FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES
   AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT SETTLES OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. 
   THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN WEAK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   LARGE INVERTED-V SIGNATURES ACROSS THIS REGION WITH AN ATTENDANT
   THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG MICROBURSTS.
    
   ..EVANS.. 05/26/03
    
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z