STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
VALID 031200-041200
THERE IS RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS
NEWD ACROSS MID MS VLY TO THE LWR GRT LKS.
...SYNOPSIS...
COMPLEX TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS THE GRT BASIN AND ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE ENE AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
PLNS AND UPR MS VLY ON THURSDAY AS STRONG UPSTREAM SYSTEM DROPS SE
TOWARD THE NRN CA COAST.
AT LOWER LEVELS...LEE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT AT START OF
PERIOD OVER NEBRASKA SHOULD TRACK E ALONG STALLED FRONT EXTENDING
E TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE FRONT SHOULD SURGE S IN WAKE OF
THE LOW...REACHING THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY.
...MID MS VLY TO LWR GRT LKS...
SURFACE RIDGE NOW ELONGATED W/E ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD WEAKEN ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
TO FINALLY BEGIN SPREADING NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VLY. AS LEAD
PORTION OF UPPER TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED 850 MB CONFLUENCE ZONE...
ENCOUNTER THIS MOISTURE AXIS...SUFFICIENT UPLIFT MAY DEVELOP TO
OVERCOME EXISTING CAP...LEADING TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
PARTS OF THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS LATER THURSDAY. OTHER STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST N OF STALLED FRONT EXTENDING E TO THE LWR GRT
LKS. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLS GIVEN
STRENGTH OF UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SHEAR /AOA 50 KTS/. WITH MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY STILL LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT ALONG FRONT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS SHOULD BE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND.
...CNTRL/SRN PLNS...
A SEPARATE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD
/AFTER 06Z FRIDAY/ OVER PARTS OF KS/MO/NRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND DEVELOP IN ZONE OF 850-700 MB WARM ADVECTION
DOWNSTREAM FROM SECONDARY PORTION OF EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. AMPLE
CLOUD LAYER SHEAR /ON THE ORDER OF 50 KTS/ WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP FOR LARGE
HAIL GIVEN SOMEWHAT GREATER DEGREE OF MOISTURE INFLOW EXPECTED IN
THIS REGION RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER N AND E.
..CORFIDI.. 04/01/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z
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