STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
    
   VALID 041200-051200
    
   THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE OVER ERN NC/SE VA AND THE SRN
   DELMARVA PENINSULA.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POTENT OH VLY SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SWEEPS
   NE ACROSS NEW ENG AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON TUESDAY/EARLY
   WEDNESDAY....WHILE E PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDS STILL FARTHER N INTO WRN
   CANADA.  TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH OH VLY TROUGH SHOULD
   MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AROUND MIDDAY AS SURFACE LOW
   CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE LWR ST LAWRENCE VLY.  
   
   ...ERN NC/TIDEWATER VA/SRN DELMARVA...
   CONVECTIVE BAND EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE OH/TN VLY REGION LATE
   MONDAY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN UPON REACHING THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS
   EARLY TUESDAY.  THE CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY HAVE OUTRUN ASSOCIATED
   SURFACE FRONT BY 50-100 MILES OR SO...THEREBY NARROWING OVERLAND
   AREA WITH A POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN NC/SE VA
   LATER TUESDAY MORNING.  CURRENT CONDITIONS OVER THE ERN U.S. SWD
   INTO FL SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN OVER ERN NC/SE
   VA AHEAD OF FRONT/CONVECTIVE BAND WILL BE MODEST AT BEST. 
   NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN STRENGTH OF FRONTAL FORCING AND LIKELIHOOD
   THAT AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT OVER
   REGION...WOULD BE SURPRISED IF NO CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURRED
   WHATSOEVER BEFORE FRONT MOVED OFFSHORE.  WIND PROFILES WILL BE
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS /MID LEVEL SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE AOA 75
   KTS/...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY LIKELY TO LIMIT COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
   SEVERE THREAT.    
    
   ..CORFIDI.. 02/02/03
    
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z