STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
    
   VALID 031200-041200
    
   THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS/TN AND LWR
   OH RVR VLYS.
    
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE JET STRUCTURE WILL EVOLVE TOWARD A MORE SPLIT-TYPE PATTERN ON
   MONDAY/TUESDAY AS PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC AMPLIFIES N
   INTO FAR WRN CANADA.  IN RESPONSE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
   CROSS THE GRT BASIN ON SUNDAY AND REACH THE SRN PLNS EARLY MONDAY
   SHOULD EJECT NE INTO THE OH VLY LATER MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY.  SOME 
   PHASING MAY OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS NRN JET DROPPING SE FROM
   THE UPR MS VLY.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN TROUGH SHOULD
   ACCELERATE E/SE ACROSS THE LWR MS/TN VLY REGION ON MONDAY AS
   EXISTING FRONTAL WAVES CONSOLIDATE INTO A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE
   LWR GRT LKS.
    
   ...PORTIONS OF THE LWR MS/TN AND LWR OH RVR VLYS...
   SOME DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING SPEED/
   INTENSITY OF SRN STREAM IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD FROM THE SRN PLNS. 
   BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A STRONGER AND...A
   LITTLE SURPRISINGLY...FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ETA. 
   
   REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS...WHAT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THAT A BAND
   OF STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SURGE E/NE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   LWR MS/TN AND LWR OH VLYS ON MONDAY.  WHILE THIS AXIS WILL LIKELY
   BE LOCATED WELL TO THE W OF THE SURFACE FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY...IT
   SHOULD CATCH UP TO OR AT LEAST APPROACH THE SURFACE FRONT LATER
   MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE ON MORE OF A NEUTRAL OR
   SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT.
   
   WITH MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW INCREASING TO AOA 70 KTS...AMPLE SHEAR
   WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  FORCED ASCENT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
   A LINE OF CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDER ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY
   AFTERNOON OVER ERN AR/W TN.  BUT LIMITED DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE RETURN /DEWPOINTS WILL AT BEST EXPECTED TO RISE ONLY INTO
   THE LOWER 50S/...AND WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE
   THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.  NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN EXPECTED UNSEASONABLY
   WARM CONDITIONS AHEAD OF FRONT...AND STRENGTHENING OF LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT WITH TIME...IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST SOME THREAT WILL EXIST
   FOR SMALL SCALE BOWS/DAMAGING WINDS...IF STORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP
   WITHIN THE LINE.  THE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO PARTS OF KY AND ERN
   TN MONDAY NIGHT.  
   
   ...CNTRL GULF COAST...
   A SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION MAY AFFECT PARTS OF LA/MS AND AL ON
   MONDAY AS REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE NOW NEAR SRN BAJA CA
   INTERACTS WITH COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH SRN
   PLAINS IMPULSE.  SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED GIVEN EXPECTED
   WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AS PLAINS
   SYSTEM EJECTS NEWD.
   
   ..CORFIDI/PETERS.. 02/01/03
    
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z