SPC AC 230806
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0206 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2003
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW BLI 30 NNE SEA
   20 N PDX 45 ESE EUG 20 NNW MFR CEC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 20 SSW MGR 35 SW
   CLT 20 SW LYH 15 SSE MRB 20 SSE IPT 35 NE BGM 40 S SLK 10 NNE MPV 20
   W BHB.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST ON THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH
   THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING DEEP...CLOSED MID-LEVEL
   CIRCULATION WHICH WILL MOVE EWD/NEWD FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES INTO
   THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEAN TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLOSED LOW
   WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED AT THIS TIME AS VORTICITY MAX AND
   ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE SERN U.S. TO
   OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.
   
   IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE INITIALLY IN THE LEE OF
   THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE/DEVELOP NWD ALONG ATTENDANT
   BAROCLINIC INTO SRN QUEBEC BY THURSDAY MORNING. TRAILING COLD FRONT
   WILL CONCURRENTLY PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
   STATES...SERN U.S. AND FL.
   
   ...ERN NC/SERN VA...
   SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
   FORECAST PERIOD IN WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ZONE WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR
   BELT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   SHIFT NEWD INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
   INTENSIFYING SLY LLJ DEVELOPS NWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
   
   STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH COUPLED
   WITH MODEST AMOUNTS OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /I.E. DEWPOINTS OF
   55-60F/ SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
   ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
   ALTHOUGH THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO REDUCE THE OVERALL SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT...FAVORABLY STRONG TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WILL
   SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITH ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL.
   
   ...FL...
   A LINE OF TSTMS MAY INITIALLY BE IN PROGRESS ALONG SURFACE COLD
   FRONT OVER THE ERN FL PNHDL WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
   AIRMASS SHOULD TEND TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF
   FRONT...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
   PRIMARY FACTORS MITIGATING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEAR TO BE
   VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR /EFFECTIVELY
   DIMINISHING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ AND GENERALLY WEAK LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT.
   
   ..MEAD.. 12/23/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z