SPC AC 180944
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0344 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2003
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
   DAB 20 SSE SRQ ...CONT... 20 WNW CTY 60 N AYS 35 ENE ANB 30 NNW CHA
   15 ENE TRI 25 WSW SHD 15 N CXY 20 NW TTN 20 SE NEL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW EFK 25 NE LEB
   10 ENE PSM ...CONT... 25 S TLH 30 SSW MCN 25 NW LGC 10 W CBM 30 E
   MKL 10 NW BWG 20 N LOZ 20 NE HTS 55 N ERI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BLI 45 SE OLM
   25 NNW SLE 10 NW ONP.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SERN AND MID
   ATLANTIC STATES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER TROUGH NOW DIGGING S ACROSS ERN NM/W TX EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
   INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE OVER NRN AL AT THE START OF THE
   PERIOD.  THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE E AND THEN NE TO THE DELMARVA
   REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY AS UPSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E TO THE CNTRL
   PLNS/MID MS VLY.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD WILL LIKELY BE
   STRONGLY DISTORTED BY CONTINUING PRESENCE OF PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE.
   THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM SW VA/WRN NC ACROSS WRN SC/NE GA
   AND THE ERN PART OF THE FL PANHANDLE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ...AND SHOULD
   MOVE OFF THE NC/SE VA CST EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
   
   ...ERN GA/CAROLINAS TO DELMARVA REGION...
   EXPECT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS TO PERSIST ALONG PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE
   BAND THAT WILL MOVE E/NE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN AND MID ATLANTIC
   STATES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  WHILE STRONGEST BAND OF UPPER
   FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH NOW AMPLIFYING OVER THE SRN PLNS WILL
   PROBABLY REMAIN W OF THE CONVECTION... AMPLE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE
   PRESENT TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
   RELATIVELY LIMITED INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS REGION
   /MUCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/.
   
   AS REGION WILL NOT BE AFFECTED BY AN EXISTING WEDGE-TYPE AIR MASS E
   OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW OFF THE
   ATLANTIC SHOULD BOOST SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S.  COUPLED
   WITH WEAKLY CONVERGENT LARGE SCALE FLOW AND ABSENCE OF STRONG CIN...
   POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW CELLS AHEAD
   OF SQUALL LINE OVER THE CAROLINA AND VA CSTL PLN.  LOW LCLS AND
   FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES...BOTH ALONG CONVECTIVE BAND AND WITH ANY ISOLATED STORMS
   FORMING AHEAD OF IT.  WEAK STATIONARY FRONT NOW SETTING UP ACROSS
   NRN NC/SRN VA MAY LOCALLY CONCENTRATE AND LIMIT NWD EXTENT OF SEVERE
   THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF UPPER SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AS MUCH AS FORECAST
   BY THE ETA.
   
   ...SE GA INTO NRN AND CNTRL FL...
   SRN END OF SQUALL LINE AFFECTING THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE ACROSS SE
   GA AND THE NRN HALF OF FL DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN CLOSER
   PROXIMITY OF THIS CONVECTIVE BAND TO SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND TO 60+
   KT WLY MID LEVEL JET...POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WILL
   LIKELY EXIST DESPITE SOMEWHAT VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW.  COUPLED WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SURFACE HEATING...SETUP MAY SUPPORT BOWING
   SEGMENTS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WIND IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   ...N GA/E TN/WRN SC...
   SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WITH HAIL MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
   SRN APPALACHIANS...IF DIURNAL HEATING IS ABLE TO OCCUR BENEATH DEEP
   UPPER LOW AND IN WAKE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE BAND.
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 11/18/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z