SPC AC 011755
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1155 AM CST SAT NOV 01 2003
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FDY CMI 25 SSE EMP 50
   E LBL 35 NNW LBL 50 WNW GCK 20 WNW HLC 30 WSW LNK 30 WSW ALO 30 NNW
   MKG 50 SSE OSC 25 WSW ERI FDY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S FMY 10 N PBI.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH MOVING SWD ACROSS WRN CANADA TODAY MOVES INTO THE BASE
   OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE WRN STATES TO
   ERN CANADA.  UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE ERN STATES SWWD ACROSS
   THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TX...WHILE AN ELY WAVE MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF
   FL ACROSS CUBA.  QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM
   SWRN KS/OK PANHANDLE NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY TO SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...
   GREATEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM THE START OF THE PERIOD TO
   THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH
   THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING OF THE NOCTURNAL LLJ WHICH
   SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. 
   ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL SUSTAIN SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS
   CURRENTLY OVER TX ADVECTING NNEWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. 
   ALTHOUGH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MAIN FORCING FOR CONVECTION WILL
   BE ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE
   FRONT WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ.  MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY
   WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
   
   ...S FL...
   A LOBE OF VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELY WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
   ACROSS SRN FL ON SUNDAY.  MID-LEVEL COOLING WITH INCREASING LOWER
   TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE BY SUNDAY EVENING WILL AID IN GREATER
   INSTABILITY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.  WEAK FORCING WITH
   THE VORT LOBE WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AIR MASS.  HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A LESS
   THAN 5 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 11/01/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z