SPC AC 290658
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2003
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE OKC 20 ENE SPS
45 ESE PVW 30 SE TCC 40 SSW RTN 35 S PUB 40 NNW LAA 30 NNE GCK 30 E
P28 25 ESE OKC.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE CTY 50 N DAB.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 20 NNW UCA 25 WNW
ELM FKL 25 E CLE 50 N CLE.
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE INHIBITED TUESDAY AS STABILITY
INCREASES WITHIN CONTINENTAL AIR MASS SETTLING SWD ALONG BACK SIDE
OF ERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS FL WHERE
A DEEPLY MOIST AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. HOWEVER ...VERY
LIMITED LAPSE RATES WILL ONLY SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WHILE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. ELSEWHERE...LOW TOPPED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES WHERE H7 TEMPERATURES OF
-12C TO -16C SETTLE OVER WARM LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER THE ERN LAKES
WHERE LAKE SURFACES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED EARLY IN THE PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OF OK AND THE
TX PANHANDLE WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT WEAK
INSTABILITY ALONG NOSE OF SSWLY LLJ.
..EVANS.. 09/29/2003
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
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