SPC AC 251702
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE
   1202 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2003
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
   OTM 40 NNW DNV 35 SE IND 30 N BWG 60 WSW ARG 25 NE MLC 25 NNW OKC 15
   SW EMP 30 ESE OTM.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX 50 NE HOU 55 ESE
   SHV 30 SW PBF 10 ESE HOT 35 SW PGO 20 WNW DUA 25 N LTS 15 ESE GAG 15
   SSW HUT 20 E FNB 40 ESE OMA 30 NE SUX 35 NW MBG 50 N ISN ...CONT...
   25 NW BUF 10 W SYR 45 ENE UCA 20 NNE LEB 30 SE AUG ...CONT... 15 NNW
   ORF 40 E RWI ILM.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHEAST OK INTO CENTRAL
   IN...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED THIS PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER
   DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF CANADIAN ROCKIES DROPPING SE INTO THE NRN
   PLNS AND DEEPENING OVER THE GRT LKS.  WEAKER IMPULSE WILL BE
   OVER MN/WI AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
   FOLLOWED BY MAIN IMPULSE WHICH SHOULD REACH IL/IND BY 12Z SATURDAY.
   
   WARM FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE UPR GRT LKS FIRST PART OF
   PERIOD...WHILE INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT PLUNGES S ACROSS THE NRN
   PLNS/UPR MS VLY EARLY SATURDAY.
   
   ...NRN OK INTO THE OH VLY...
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS
   AND OZARK PLATEAU LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MAIN UPPER
   IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NRN
   PLNS. AT THE SAME TIME..STRENGTHENING SW TO WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW
   AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL TAP POOL OF
   FAIRLY RICH 925-850 MB MOISTURE NOW OVER THE SRN PLNS. COMBINATION
   OF MOISTURE RETURN...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT
   LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD OVERCOME EXISTING CAP TO INITIATE
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN AND PERHAPS CNTRL PARTS OF MO/IL BY EARLY
   EVENING.  A MORE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT MAY EXTEND W INTO
   NE OK/N AR. AMPLE /35-40 KT/ DEEP WNWLY SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR
   SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WIND.  LINEAR FORCING...INCREASING/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP WLY
   FLOW AND AVAILABILITY OF DRY AIR ALOFT ALL SUGGEST FAIRLY RAPID
   EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE FORWARD- PROPAGATING BANDS AS 60+ M
   HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD REGION.  ASSOCIATED BOWING LINE SEGMENTS MAY
   EXTEND DAMAGING WIND THREAT SWD/EWD INTO PARTS OF AR/KY AND OK
   BY EARLY SATURDAY.
   
   FARTHER N...SCATTERED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY DEVELOP
   IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF SAME SPEED MAX DIGGING SEWD FROM THE NRN
   PLNS.  THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE MOST LIKELY OVER PARTS OF IA/NRN MO
   AND CENT IL FRIDAY EVENING.
   
   ..AFWA.. 09/25/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z