SPC AC 280648
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0148 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2003
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE
   CAR 20 WNW EEN 30 NNE MSV 10 WSW IPT 15 E PIT 15 SSE MFD 20 N FDY 15
   WNW ARB 45 SE OSC
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW PSX 10 S DRT
   ...CONT... 80 SSW GBN LAS 55 SE BAM 15 NNE SUN 45 W BIL 40 N REJ 30
   SSE PIR 25 SE OLU 40 SSW P35 25 NW BMI 25 SSW MKG 35 S ANJ
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES/WRN
   ENGLAND...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THEIR HANDLING OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
   DURING THE PERIOD.  STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   SYSTEM WILL LIKEWISE MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
   INTO WRN NY DURING THE EARLY EVENING...WITH SWD MOTION BEING A BIT
   SLOWER INTO OH AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY/SRN PLAINS. IN
   ADDITION...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW NOW APPROACHING NRN CA WILL
   CONTINUE DIGGING ESEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
   FRIDAY.
   
   ...WRN NEW ENGLAND/ERN GREAT LAKES INTO UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY...
   ETA CONTINUES TO SPREAD UPPER 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS NWD INTO MUCH
   OF NY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  DESPITE THE
   INCREASING MOISTURE...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY YIELD MODEST
   INSTABILITY UNDER RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES.  HOWEVER AS COLD FRONT
   SHIFTS EWD...EVEN MODEST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
   LINE OR BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST
   ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS WRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
   EARLY EVENING WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S. 
   WLY LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL ALIGN ITSELF PERPENDICULAR TO
   N-S ORIENTED COLD FRONT AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
   EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES WITH ATTENDANT WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS BROKEN
   SQUALL LINE MOVES EWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  ORIENTATION OF
   SHEAR VECTORS AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
   BOWING SEGMENTS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY...SUGGESTING PERSISTENT
   WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH FARTHER SWWD ALONG THE FRONT.
   
   ...LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO NRN OK/SRN KS...
   MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST
   BEHIND SWD MOVING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY INTO PARTS OF KS/OK FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON.  MOST ACTIVE REGION WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED OVER SRN KS
   AND NRN OK WHERE MODELS INDICATE SLY H85 FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW
   LEVEL WAA WILL BE STRONGEST.  THOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN ALONG
   THE FRONT FROM THE OZARK REGION NEWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY
   THROUGH THE DAY...ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO THE TX
   PANHANDLE/OK.  WILL FORECAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS IN CASE STORMS CAN BRIEFLY TAP WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER ALONG THE FRONT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WINDS/HAIL.
   
   ...GREAT BASIN INTO THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...
   APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED -14C MID LEVEL COLD POCKET
   SHOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY DURING
   THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA.  WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID
   LEVEL AIR...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL/WINDS AROUND SEVERE
   LEVELS WARRANTS LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   
   ..EVANS.. 08/28/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z