SPC AC 060743
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 AM CDT WED AUG 06 2003
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE
   MOT 25 ENE 9V9 25 N EAR 15 NNW MCK 25 WSW BFF 15 ESE 4BQ 35 NNW BIL
   15 E BTM 65 W 27U 20 SW ALW 40 NNE EPH 30 N 63S
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE 7R4 25 ESE HEZ
   25 W MEI 15 ENE TCL 25 NNE HSV 30 W BWG 10 NW MDH 30 SSE BRL 15 E
   DBQ 10 SSE CWA 20 NNE IMT 50 NNW ANJ
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE YUM 10 SSW PRC
   30 WSW FMN 25 W 4FC 55 NNE LAR 25 WNW GCC 40 SSW BIL 25 NNW WEY 40
   NNW SUN 15 W BNO 40 S MHS 40 ENE ACV 35 E OTH 40 SE OLM 25 ENE BLI
   ...CONT... 65 NNE DVL 40 NNW ATY 20 NW LNK 25 ESE HLC 40 ESE END 15
   NNE ACT 30 SW GLS ...CONT... 15 E CRP 40 E COT 50 SSE DRT
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS AND
   NRN RCKYS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS
   DEEP TROUGH PERSISTS OFF THE W CST....RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY OVER
   THE HI PLNS...AND TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LWR GRT LKS TO THE TN
   VLY.  A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE/SPEED MAX NOW ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO
   BORDER SHOULD DROP SSE ACROSS THE MID MS/LWR OH VLY DURING THE NEXT
   24-36 HRS...BEFORE CONTINUING SE INTO AL/GA BY 12Z FRIDAY.  BACK
   W...PART OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE NOW OFF THE NRN CA CST EXPECTED TO
   TRACK NE INTO ERN ORE DURING THE NEXT 36 HRS.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD
   MOVE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
   
   FEATURES WILL REMAIN WEAK AT LOWER LEVELS.  A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT/LEE
   TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SE ACROSS AL/GA AND THE CAROLINAS DURING
   THE PERIOD...WHILE LEE TROUGH/LOW PERSISTS OVER THE NRN HI PLNS.
   
   ...NRN HI PLNS...
   CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
   CLUSTERS OF STRONG AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS INVOF PERSISTENT LEE
   TROUGH OVER THE NRN HI PLNS...AND OVER THE BLACK HILLS ON THURSDAY. 
   AMPLE DEEP W TO WNWLY DEEP SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR SUPERCELLS
   ...WITH 15-20 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUING BENEATH 25-30 KT WLY
   FLOW AT 500 MB.  BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED
   IN ERN MT AND  FAR WRN ND...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT
   LEAST A FEW STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND.  SOMEWHAT GREATER
   MOISTURE WILL LIKELY EXIST FARTHER S INTO WRN SD/NEB...WHERE A SMALL
   MCS OR TWO MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT.
   
   ...NRN RCKYS...
   WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE HIGH BASED STORMS EXPECTED TO
   ACCOMPANY FAST SW FLOW OVER THE NRN RCKYS ON THURSDAY. WHILE STORMS
   WILL LIKELY BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...TIMING WILL ALSO BE MODULATED BY PASSING DISTURBANCES
   ALOFT. THE STRONGEST OF THESE SHOULD MOVE NE ACROSS WRN MT DURING
   THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AND MAY BE FOLLOWED BY SOME DEGREE OF
   SUBSIDENCE LATER THURSDAY.  AT ANY RATE...WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SMALL SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS WITH
   HIGH WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ...SERN U.S...
   SEVERAL LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS EXPECTED TO
   PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY UPPER IMPULSE DROPPING SE INTO THE TN VLY/SRN
   APPALACHIAN REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. 
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD BE MOIST ADIABATIC...AND VERTICAL
   SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MODEST /ON THE ORDER OF 25 KTS/...BUT WITH SOME
   LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT.  THIS ALL SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
   FOR A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A
   BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.  EXPECTED COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF EVENT DOES NOT
   APPEAR TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK ATTM.
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 08/06/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z