STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
65 NW GGW 30 WNW GDV 35 SSW BIS 45 W FAR 20 NE BJI 35 ENE ELO
...CONT... 80 NNW ANJ 30 N ESC 50 SSW IWD 30 SE AXN 50 NE BKX
15 N SPW 55 ENE OMA 25 NE BIE 20 SW BBW 40 SSW IML 45 NNW AKO
50 E DGW 45 SW GCC 50 ENE WEY 25 SSE 3DU 50 NNW FCA.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 135 NNW BUF
35 SSW OSC 30 W MBL 20 NW MSN 45 NW DBQ 35 NW OTM 45 S P35
45 E EMP 35 WSW RSL 40 W GCK 35 SSW CAO 40 SSE LVS 45 NNW ROW
15 SE HOB 35 E BGS 50 WNW TPL 40 SW TYR 40 N GGG 30 SSE MLC
15 SW FYV 40 SE HRO 25 NNW MEM 50 N MSL 40 W CSV 45 SSE LOZ
40 NNE TRI SSU 45 NNE SHD 10 WNW MRB 20 NNE CXY 25 N MSV
30 NNW GFL 35 NW PBG ...CONT... 65 NNW ISN 30 WNW P24 60 SW DVL
50 E INL ...CONT... 35 S RAL 25 ESE PMD 40 ESE NID 40 WSW LAS
50 SSW SGU 40 NNE GCN 30 W 4BL GJT 20 SE CAG 20 SSE LAR 30 SSE DGW
25 NE CPR 20 W WRL 10 N WEY 15 SSE DLN 75 NW SUN 50 ESE 4LW
30 ENE MHS 10 NNE MFR 40 WSW RDM 60 WSW PDT 30 NNW ALW 30 NE EPH
40 N 4OM.
...SYNOPSIS...
ROCKIES/GRT BASIN RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD STILL FARTHER N INTO THE
NRN PLNS AND E INTO THE LWR TN/MS VLYS ON WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW OVER WRN ONTARIO/NRN MN MOVES E ACROSS SRN QUEBEC.
FARTHER S...REMNANT OF CLAUDETTE EXPECTED TO MOVE W OR POSSIBLY WNW
INTO FAR SW TX.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES SW ACROSS THE LWR OH VLY INTO SRN MO/NRN AR.
FROM THERE IT SHOULD CONTINUE NW INTO A DIFFUSE LEE/THERMAL LOW
OVER THE CNTRL/NRN HI PLNS. FARTHER N...EXPECT A SEPARATE COLD
FRONT TO AFFECT NRN MN/WI...AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SPEED MAX CROSSING
SRN ONTARIO.
...NRN HI PLNS TO LWR MO/UPR MS VLYS...
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INVOF WEAK FRONT AND N/E
OF LEE LOW EXPECTED TO SERVE AS FOCUS FOR PERIODIC DIURNALLY-
ENHANCED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF THE N CNTRL U.S.
SUFFICIENT SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT
FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. WHILE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS SHOULD BE
LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND...STRONG DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
/MEAN MIXED CAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG/ AND BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY
YIELD A COUPLE TORNADOES NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. OTHER STORMS MAY
FORM IN DEEP MIXED ENVIRONMENT EXTENDING SW ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO
CNTRL NEB. LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER ENTIRE REGION MAY BE MODULATED
BY WEAK IMPULSES IN WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW TOPPING UPPER RIDGE.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO SMALL MCSS...WITH
TENDENCY FOR BOTH FORWARD AND BACKWARD-PROPAGATING SEGMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
A SEPARATE MCS...POTENTIALLY WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...MAY MOVE E
ALONG COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF MN/WI/UPR MI. MORE LIMITED
INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER S AND W SHOULD
LIMIT DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT.
...NEW ENGLAND...
A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY PRECEDE WEAK COLD FRONT
AND TAIL END OF ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH CROSSING NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS
...EXPECT THAT WEAK INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE WILL KEEP SUCH ACTIVITY
ISOLATED.
...SRN AZ...
PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE WWD PROPAGATION OF STORMS
FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE AZ/NRN MEXICO. STRONG COLD
POOL POTENTIAL SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO
ONE OR TWO LARGE MCSS. THUS...PARTS OF AZ AND PERHAPS INTERIOR SRN
CA MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS THE
TIMING OF POTENTIAL MESOSCALE INITIATING/SUSTAINING MECHANISMS
BECOMES MORE APPARENT.
..CORFIDI.. 07/15/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
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